EPL Preview – Gameweek 19

EPL Gameweek 19 Preview and Tips

Several sides will be put to the test this week following a chaotic schedule. Some sides will be playing their 4th game in a span of less than 10 days. Will fatigue take it’s toll…

EPL Match Previews

Arsenal v Liverpool – (Sat 6:45am)
What a way to start off the weekend! This is the one time of the season where depth is critical and when it comes to depth, one could argue that Arsenal are second behind only Man City in this department. They are undefeated in their last 5 across all competitions and have conceded just a single goal in that stretch. They are coming off consecutive 1-0 wins over Newcastle (EPL) and West Ham (EFL Cup). Welbeck, Giroud, Walcott and Chambers all featured in the EFL Cup win and the fact that they are part of a second string line up is testament to Wenger’s squad depth. The Gunners will need to be at their best as Liverpool have been their kryptonite as of late. Liverpool have won the last 3 meetings and are undefeated in the last 5. They have scored 3 or more goals in 4 straight against Arsenal and are currently on a 12 game unbeaten run across all competitions. There is a reason why this matchup suits Liverpool – pace! The Reds are most effective in open games and against teams that lack any significant size up front. Arsenal will have to go without the poise and precision of Ramsey in midfield while for Liverpool, Matip and Moreno are still sidelined. The Over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings with an average of 4.33 goals per game in that stretch. Wolfy is backing a stack of goals and a Liverpool upset.
Best: Over 3.5 goals ($2.25)
Value: Over 2.5 goals & Liverpool WIN ($3.20)

Everton v Chelsea – (Sat 11:30pm)
Can Everton sustain what they have done over the last month… The Wolf doesn’t think so but says we have to respect the fact that they have 4 wins and a draw from their last 5 Premier League outings. Sam Allardyce has definitely made inroads defensively with Martina a revelation in Baines absence. The Wolf believes they will turn to defence again for this one. Chelsea’s attack has definitely hit a speed bump in recent weeks. The Blues have scored multiple goals in only 2 of their last 6 EPL fixtures and with 5 of those matches coming against bottom half sides you can see why The Wolf is concerned. Chelsea has won the last 4 meetings but on current form The Wolf says they should not be this short in the market. Gueye has been a real stalwart in recent weeks while Sigurdsson and Calvert-Lewin are combining brilliantly. Both sides will employ defence first tactics making the Unders and the draw both good value.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.80)
Value: Draw ($3.80)

Man City v Bournemouth – (Sun 2:00am)
City have been tested but are yet to be cracked. Pep rested all of his key players in the midweek EFL Cup trip to Leicester and despite being pushed to a penalty shootout for the second consecutive time in the competition they managed to get through after Vardy and Mahrez missed back to back penalties. It comes after City put on a masterclass in a 4-1 win over Spurs in yet another performance that confirms that the title is theirs to lose. The busy schedule is one that does not both City and if anything benefits them as it provides Pep with the opportunity to rotate the squad. They couldn’t ask for a better run over the Christmas period with matches against Palace, Watford and Burnley to follow. Bournemouth continue to slide down the ladder after having collected just 3 of a possible 18 points in their last 6. Liverpool ran a train past The Cherries last week and The Wolf is expecting the flood gates to open up yet again.
Best: Man City Over 3.5 goals ($2.05)
Value: Man City Over 5.5 goals ($6.50)

Burnley v Tottenham – (Sun 4:30am)
Burnley are getting absolutely no respect in this one and The Wolf says we will take full advantage as a result. They sit 6th on the ladder a point ahead of Spurs and have lost just 1 of their last 9 EPL matches at home. The key to Burnley’s success has been their defence and they now have the equal best defence in the league alongside the two Manchester clubs. Turf Moor has been a fortress! 6 of 9 teams have failed to score at the ground this season and Spurs road form is questionable to say the least. They have claimed just a single point from their last 5 away league games and scored just 3 goals in that stretch. We saw them completely outclassed at the Etihad a week ago and the pattern of this game will not suit them. Burnley play lock-down football at home – they will leave no spaces to speak of and will push forward in limited numbers. Under 2.5 goals is 9-0 in Burnley home game with Under 1.5 goals 7-2! There will be not more than a goal in this one and The Wolf says to take Burnley in the double chance market.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.70)
Value: Double Chance – Burnley or Draw ($2.30)

Leicester v Man Utd – (Sun 6:45am)
It’s been a bad week for Leicester. Things were going great but a 4 game win streak came to a crashing end at home to Palace and that was compounded by a gut wrenching loss to Man City in the League Cup. They took City all the way to a penalty shootout but came up short when Vardy and Mahrez missed back to back attempts. The tough part for Leicester is that they their starting XI has been run into the ground at the worst time of the season. Now they have to deal with the Red Devils before trips to Watford and Liverpool all before the turn of the new year. This is a classic scenario where the budget and the depth of the bigger clubs will come into full effect. United are undefeated in their last 7 against Leicester, winning the last 4 meetings including the last two at King Power Stadium. The Wolf can see Man Utd getting the jump early in this one and that will allow them to play this one on their terms.
Best: Man Utd WIN ($1.80)
Value: Man Utd Over 3.5 goals ($9.00)

Gameweek 19 Best Bets

Best: Burnley v Tottenham – Under 2.5 goals ($1.70)
Best Value Bet: Over 2.5 goals & Liverpool WIN ($3.20)

Results

Best Bets
Gameweek 18: 2-8
Gameweek 18 ROI: 36.40%
Overall: 90-90
Overall ROI: 99.56%

Value Bets
Gameweek 18: 2-8
Gameweek 18 ROI: 58%
Overall: 39-141
Overall ROI: 83.60%

All Bets
Overall ROI: 91.58%