UCL Tips: Round of 16 (2nd Leg)

Three of the four matches are in the balance! Man Utd look to continue their dominance at home while Chelsea will need to find a way to get a result at the Camp Nou and do so without less than 30% possession. The Wolf gives them little to no chance.

UCL Round of 16 Feature Previews


Man Utd v Sevilla (0-0) – (Wed 6:45am)
In the 1st leg Mourinho played for the draw and got it. He started with 3 defensive players in the middle of the park and there is no doubt that the priority for the return leg will be to keep a clean sheet. If they can shutout Sevilla they will at worst get themselves into extra time. One thing that is for certain is that they will bring a lot of confidence with them into this one with. Man City remain the only side to beat them at home this season and they are fresh off wins over Chelsea and Liverpool. Their record at Old Trafford is formidable in this competition as well, with 10 wins and 2 draws in their last 12 UCL matches at the venue. We’ll be backing the Red Devils to grab the win and to maintain a clean sheet in doing so.
Best: Man Utd WIN ($1.60)
Value: Teams To Score – Man Utd Only ($2.45)

Roma v Shakhtar Donetsk (1-2) – (Wed 6:45am)
We were all over Shakhtar in the opening leg and the 2-1 result makes for an enthralling second leg. In the past one would pencil an Italian side in for a gritty 1-0 win but clean sheets have been few and far between for this Roma side in recent times. They have maintained just one clean sheet in their last 7 games at home across all competitions and have in fact conceded multiple goals in 4 of those matches. Meanwhile Shakhtar have been flawless since the return from their winter break. They have won 5 in a row, have scored 18 goals and conceded just once. If Roma are to progress they will need to score multiple goals at a minimum. The Over is 5-0 in Shakhtar’s last 5 UCL matches and they will again turn to Ferreyra, Marlos and Bernard in attack. Cannot see Roma keeping them out which will turn the second half of this one into an absolute epic!
Best: Both Teams To Score – YES ($1.57)
Value: 2nd Half Over 2.5 goals ($3.40)


Besiktas v Bayern Munich (0-5) – (Thur 6:45am)
Things could not be going better for Bayern at this point in time. They are 20 points clear at the top of the Bundesliga and come into this one with a 5-0 advantage following a demolition at Allianz Arena. Being so dominant in their league had an adverse affect on the Bavarian’s in this competition as they have been below their best when it counts most. The Wolf firmly believes that Heynckes will opt for a very strong lineup in order to give his key players as much experience as possible in hostile European environments. It will help them prepare for the rounds to come and he can bring them off early if need be. The reality is that even a second string Munich side will be able to account for Besiktas. Nevertheless, as we saw last week, this has complacency written all over it. Bayern have conceded in 11 straight away matches in this competition, making Besiktas huge value in the double chance market.
Best: Double Chance – Besiktas or Draw ($2.20)
Value: Besiktas Over 1.5 goals ($2.70)

Barcelona v Chelsea (1-1) – (Thur 6:45am)
This is the must watch match of the round but Chelsea may have let their chances slip in the second half at Stamford Bridge. Willian was the best on ground but Messi made them pay for some sloppy play at the back. As has been the case in recent weeks, Chelsea were more than content to simply sit back and allow their opponents to have up to 70% possession. This one will be no exception but Conte must realise that if Chelsea do not score, they cannot progress. Chelsea have never won at the Camp Nou and Barca have been incredibly tough to break down under Ernesto Valverde. They have maintained 9 clean sheets in their last 11 home games across all competitions and have lost just once at home in this competitions dating back to 2009! With more than 70% possession they will shut the Blues out of the game and prevent them from generating any clear goal scoring opportunities. 
Best: Teams To Score – Barcelona Only ($2.35)
Value: Under 2.5 goals & Barcelona WIN ($3.80)


Best Bets
Round of 16: 3-1
Round of 16 ROI: 133%
Overall: 50-54
Overall ROI: 89.98%

Value Bets
Round of 16: 3-1
Round of 16 ROI: 294%
Overall: 32-73
Overall ROI: 107.13%

All Bets
Overall ROI: 98.55%