Top spot is still up for grabs in several groups but it remains highly likely that all 5 EPL sides will top their respective groups. The match of the day takes us to Munich where Bayern will host a PSG that has dismantled everything in it’s path to date.
UCL Matchday 6 Feature Previews
Chelsea v Atletico Madrid – (Wed 6:45am)
A point will be enough for Chelsea to secure top spot and with the form they have been in it is hard to see Atletico denying them. They have won 5 of their last 6 (1 draw) across all competitions and have conceded just twice in that stretch. Hazard is starting to get back to his best and that is bad news for any Blues opponent. There is more bad news for Atletico… not only do they need to win, they also need Roma to drop points at home if they are to progress to the knockout stages. They went a run of 8 games through October with just a single win across all comps and have left their run a little late for the UCL. Like Chelsea they are undefeated in their last 6 with Real Madrid the only team to get a result. They have finally started to find the back of the net more consistently with multiple goals in each of their last 4. Surprisingly, goals has also been the theme in their encounters with Chelsea. The Over is 5-1 in their 6 meetings with at least 4 goals in 4 of them. With Chelsea firing and Atletico desperate this one should as open as it gets.
Best: Over 2.5 goals ($2.00)
Value: Chelsea Over 2.5 goals ($4.60)
Bayern Munich v PSG – (Wed 6:45am)
The 3-0 win by PSG on Matchday 2 was a real statement and they have all but embarrassed every opponent that has stood in their way. They have scored 24 goals and conceded just once in their 5 victories in this competition but this shapes as their biggest match of the season. They suffered their first Ligue 1 loss of the season at the weekend and without doubt have had an eye on this match for weeks. Verratti and Cavani were rested with this one in mind while the German side will be without Bernat, Robben and Alcantara. Depth is not an issue nor is their record at home – unbeaten in last 9 across all competitions and 1 loss in their last 19 at home in the UCL. PSG have been a money making machine for us this season but The Wolf cannot ignore Bayern’s record at home in this competition. The Wolf doesn’t feel that Bayern can win by the 4 goal margin required to win the group but he does believe that PSG will be given a reality check. They are yet to prove that they can beat a world class opponent away from home.
Best: Over 3.5 goals ($2.25)
Value: Bayern Munich WIN ($2.40)
Manchester United v CSKA Moscow – (Wed 6:45am)
Mourinho’s side can secure top spot with a draw and The Wolf doesn’t expect them to push for more than they need. Why??? There is the small matter of the Manchester derby to follow at Old Trafford with the chance to close the gap to City at the top of the EPL to just 5 points. This competition has been all about getting the results required. If they had gained a point from their trip to Basel we would have seen Mourinho field a second string side for this one. The Wolf still believes that several key members will be rested and we will see United employ a very slow tempo – great news for the Unders. CSKA have scored in their last 4 away games in the UCL and have found the back of the net in 7 of their last 8 away games including trips to Leverkusen, Spurs, AEK, Benfica and Basel. United will get the point they need but The Wolf has CSKA grabbing a share of the spoils.
Best: Both Teams To Score – YES ($2.00)
Value: Draw ($4.50)
Liverpool v Spartak Moscow – (Thur 6:45am)
The Reds should be home and hosed in Group E but a loss is likely to see them fail to qualify. They only have themselves to blame after blowing a 3 goal lead away to Sevilla on Matchday 5. History suggests that Spartak will give themselves every chance. Liverpool’s clean sheet against Maribor was their first at Anfield in this competition in 8 games and The Wolf cannot see them maintaining another clean sheet. Spartak have scored at least once in 12 of their last 13 UCL fixtures (including qualifying rounds) and we all know that Liverpool have been conceding at the rate of knots. Sevilla will take care of business against Maribor and that means that Liverpool will have to win this match in order to top the group. Spartak have to go for it which will play right into Liverpool’s hands. Klopp loves to utilise his side’s pace on the counter and they will get ample opportunities to do so. The Overs is as good a bet as we will get in the UCL this week.
Best: Over 3.5 goals ($2.10)
Value: Spartak Over 1.5 goals ($5.00)
Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund – (Thur 6:45am)
Dortmund have been automatic in terms of qualifying for the knockout stages of the UCL in recent seasons but this have been their worst campaign for a long, long time. They can be excused after being drawn in the group of death but with just 5 goals scored through 5 games this is not the Dortmund we have been used to seeing. Both teamed have found the back of the net in Dortmund’s last 8 games and 14 of their last 15. Real will finish second in the group regardless of this result so it would only make sense for Zidane to give his squad players a run. Over 2.5 goals is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings with the last 3 encounters each producing 4 goals. So many of the marquee matchups have produced goals this season and this one will be no exception.
Best: Over 3.5 goals ($1.95)
Value: 2nd Half Over 2.5 goals ($2.75)
Shakhtar v Man City – (Thur 6:45am)
Man City continue to pull out Houdini-like performances! They have now scored the winning goal beyond the 80th minute in 4 consecutive games and it has allowed them to maintain a perfect record in the UCL and a 8 point gap at the top of the Premier League. With top spot secured and a date with their cross town rivals at the weekend we will see Aguero, De Bruyne and several others rested. It is great news for Shakhtar who can qualify for the next round with a point. They also have a formidable record at home that they can rely on. Real Madrid and PSG are the only two sides to win in Ukraine in their last 9 home UCL matches – a run that includes wins over Feyenoord and Napoli along with a draw against Bayern Munich. The trip to Donetsk has not been a fruitful one for English clubs with Sharktak registering 3 wins and a draw against EPL opponents (2 wins over Arsenal, 1 win over Chelsea and a draw with Man Utd). Keep a close eye on lineup changes and be ready to pounce when Pep rests virtually his entire starting XI.
Best: Shakhtar Donetsk WIN ($2.50)
Value: Shakhtar Score Both Halves – YES ($3.40)
Matchday 5: 10-6
Matchday 5 ROI: 114.81%
Overall ROI: 86.96%
Matchday 5: 6-10
Matchday 5 ROI: 107.81%
Overall ROI: 109.07%
Overall ROI: 98.02%