Liverpool travel to Sevilla while Juventus host Barcelona in a blockbuster. The Wolf gives us his best bets and value bets for all UCL matches this season.
UCL Matchday 5 Feature Previews
Dortmund v Tottenham – (Wed 6:45am)
Some great news for both teams leading into this one. For Spurs Harry Kane stated that he intends to spend his whole career at the club while for Dortmund Aubameyang i set to to return from a club imposed suspension. The latter comes as no surprise as the German side are in a desperate position. They must win their remaining two matches against Tottenham and Real Madrid and hope for results to go their way if they are to be any chance of qualifying for the knockout stages. Based on their recent form The Wolf says they will be lucky to grab 3rd spot and a place in the Europa League. They have won just 1 of their last 8 competitive matches and have in fact earned just a single point from their last 5 Bundesliga games – conceding a remarkable 14 goals in that stretch. Tottenham have been superb thus far in their campaign and will have the luxury of playing on then counter with Dortmund needing a result. It makes for a very open encounter and with the German side unable to keep anyone out as of late The Wolf is happy to take them on! There will be goals galore in this one.
Best: Over 2.5 goals ($1.60)
Value: Tottenham Over 2.5 goals ($5.50)
Man City v Feyenoord – (Wed 6:45am)
There are few superlatives left to describe Man City’s start to the season. Feyernoord are fully aware of what they are up against after being trounced at home 4-0 by City on Matchday 1. On that occasion the onslaught started early with goals from Stones and Aguero inside the opening 10 minutes. It’s been a common theme for City who have scored in the opening half in 7 of their last 8 matches. Depth can many times be seen as a hindrance but it is great news when betting on City games. With such quality on their bench there is no letting up on their opponents as the replacements are all pushing for a starting spot and the best way to do so is to impress on the pitch. It is a key reason as to why we have seen City really put teams to the sword late on. They have scored multiple goals in 14 of their last 16 and are averaging 3 goals per game in this competition. It really doesn’t matter who Pep puts out – City will be having a field day.
Best: Man City Over 3.5 goals ($2.15)
Value: Man City Over 5.5 goals ($7.00)
Sevilla v Liverpool – (Wed 6:45am)
October was not kind to Sevilla who at one stage lost 3 in a row. Since then though they have won 4 of their last 5 with the only loss a 2-1 defeat away to Barcelona. With a host of changes in the off season it was always going to take some time to gel as a unit but coach Berizzo has done a stellar job. They have experience and depth with the likes of Jesus Navas coming off the bench. The Wolf says to keep an eye on Ever Benega who is a maestro in the centre of the park. Jordan Henderson will have the task of shutting him down as the Reds will look to strike on the counter with the speed of Coutinho and Salah who have been outstanding in a 4 game win streak. Their opening encounter was a 2-2 thriller at Anfield and this one is every chance of matching that game in terms of goals and entertainment. Liverpool had conceded in 11 straight UCL fixtures prior to the back to back wins over Maribor while Sevilla’s goal has been breached in 7 of it’s last 8 in this competition. Over 2.5 is 6-0 in the Spanish sides last 6 in this competition and 5-1 in Liverpool’s last 6. The 1st half never disappoints in Reds UCL fixtures with 4 of the last 5 having multiple goals in the first stanza.
Best: Over 2.5 goals ($1.57)
Value: 1st Half Over 1.5 goals ($2.60)
Atletico Madrid v Roma – (Thur 6:45am)
To say teams have figured Atletico out is a bit of an understatement. It is no secret that their goal is more like a fortress but their attack has completely fallen apart. Opposing sides have learned to limit their ability to hit on the counter. As a result it has been more than 15 games since they last scored 3 goals or more in a match. Moreover they have scored a total of only 12 goals in their last 15 outings with the Under going 13-2 in their last 15! Roma are a point clear of Chelsea at the top of Group C and with a home fixture against Qarabag on Matchday 6 they will be more than happy with a point from their trip to Madrid.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.70)
Value: Draw ($3.30)
Basel v Man Utd – (Thur 6:45am)
Most sides are intimidated when they take on Europe’s best in the Champions League but not Basel. They have a win and 2 draws in their 5 meetings against the Red Devils to go with home wins over Liverpool and Chelsea – all in the last 4 seasons. We saw them tear Benfica to shreds on Matchday 1 and the fact that they need a result here makes things many interesting. United have already qualified which will allow Mourinho to set up exactly how he likes – defensive! The Wolf says to keep a very close eye on lineups as he feels strongly that Mourinho could be giving a host of players a start that we don’t regularly see. The Under is 6-2 in United’s last 8 across all competitions so don’t expect any fireworks. A very dull encounter on the way with Basel to grab at least a point.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.70)
Value: Draw ($3.40)
Juventus v Barcelona – (Thur 6:45am)
Few sides in Europe boast a record like Juve’s when it comes to taking on Barcelona. They have lost just 2 of their last 6 dating back to 2003 against the Spanish giants and held them scoreless in both ties in their quarter final clash last season. It must be said that they have been a shadow of the defensive unit that they were a year ago but Barca haven’t exactly been scoring at the rate we have been used to over the last 5 seasons. It has been 12 competitive matches since the Catalan side scored more than 3 goals in a game and a draw would all but secure top spot. They also have a huge clash with Valencia in the league at the weekend where a win could see them go 7 points clear at the top of La Liga. Barca have bigger fish to fry and The Wolf can see a very controlled display from them as a result.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.90)
Value: 1st Half Correct Score 0-0 ($2.85)
Matchday 4: 10-6
Matchday 4 ROI: 122.69%
Overall ROI: 80%
Matchday 4: 6-10
Matchday 4 ROI: 132.82%
Overall ROI: 109.38%
Overall ROI: 94.69%