A-League Tips Round 21

We are back to a full 5 games this weekend following a split round. Sydney FC are now 11 points clear at the top while the big movers have been Adelaide. They have moved into 4th on the back of a single loss in their last 7 while the Victory will be desperate for a win following 3 straight A-League losses. We also have the next installment of the Sydney Derby and after being embarrassed last time out the Wanderers will be seeking revenge.

A-League Tips & Preview Round 21

Central Coast v Wellington – (Fri 7:50pm)
It’s the battle of the cellar dwellers and The Wolf is very keen to put his chips into play. Taking either side in the H2H market here is suicide but a play on the totals will help build the kitty leading into the weekend. The Mariners blew yet another lead last week and failed to win despite taking the lead for a 3rd time in 5 games. They played more than 70 minutes with a man up but somehow conceded twice to 10 man Adelaide. Both teams have found the back of the net in the Mariners last 5 and The Wolf has not faith in the central defensive pairing of Poscoliero and Baro. The Phoenix ended their scoring drought with a unexpected win over the Glory at Westpac Stadium but we won’t be banking on them posting consecutive wins. They have lost 8 of their last 11 A-League away fixtures with at least 3 goals scored in their last 4 trips. The Phoenix have lost just 1 of their last 6 at Central Coast Stadium so we will be on the Overs and the Phoenix to surprise by scoring multiple goals.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.65)
Value Bet: Wellington Over 1.5 goals ($2.45)

Brisbane v Newcastle – (Sat 5:35pm)
The Jets continue to be the best team in terms of A-League betting. Last week they scored multiple goals for a 7th time in their last 9 away games and this week they will be making it 8 from 10 at Suncorp Stadium. The Roar have allowed multiple goals in their last 7 home games across all competitions including their last two at home to the Jets. The Jets have a surprisingly good record against Brisbane winning 4 of the last 5 meetings between the two clubs. Petratos put on a masterclass last week and The Wolf is expecting his combination with Nabbout to carve up the Roar on the counter. Get right around the Jets to score multiple goals and back them to win in the Overs.
Best Bet: Newcastle Over 1.5 goals ($2.00)
Value Bet: Over 2.5 goals & Newcastle WIN ($3.10)

Melbourne Victory v Adelaide – (Sat 7:50pm)
There is cause for concern for the Victory. They have lost their last 3 A-League matches, slipped out of the top 4 and a re on a short turn-around following a midweek ACL clash in Shanghai! The Reds on the other hand have lost just 1 of their last 7 and are coming off one of the gutsiest performances of the season. Down 2-0 and relegated to 10 men they were able to salvage a draw at home to the Mariners. A-League teams do not do well backing up from ACL fixtures away from home and The Wolf is shocked to see the Victory installed as firm favourites. They rely heavily on the speed of Leroy George and Barbarouses out wide but how much will they have left in the tank after a 11 hour flight. People commonly make the mistake when comparing it to European teams travelling midweek for the UCL. They travel no more than two hours and face similar conditions. The Victory will be returning from a different hemisphere after having played in pouring rain with a temperature of just 6 degrees. Adelaide are the bet here!
Best Bet: Double Chance Draw or Adelaide ($1.70)
Value Bet: Adelaide WIN ($3.40)

Perth v Melbourne City  – (Sat 10:00pm)
It is no secret that the Glory are terrible defensively. They have conceded multiple goals in 7 of their last 8 (all losses) and have registered just 1 win in their last 5 despite scoring 9 times. City are coming off a 4-0 hammering at the hands of Sydney FC but the week off will have done them the world of good. Perth on the other hand are backing up from the longest trip in domestic football – Perth to Wellington. The pair have put on some show when they have met over the last few seasons with at least 4 goals scored in 4 of the last 6 clashes. City have scored at least twice in each of the last 4 trips to nib Stadium and this one will be no different. Fronaroli will be back in the starting lineup while Keogh and Castro will be pulling the strings for the hosts. Goals, goals and more goals.
Best Bet: Over 3.5 goals ($2.35)
Value Bet: Over 4.5 goals ($4.00)

Sydney FC v Western Sydney – (Sun 7:00pm)
The fact that the Sky Blues are backing up from a trip to Shanghai may bet the Wanderers only saving grace. The RBB were left stunned earlier this season when the enemy put 5 past them in one of, if not the most embarrassing performance in Wanderers’ history. Sydney FC have completely dominated this series in recent seasons with 7 wins, 4 draws and just the single loss in the last 12 meetings. The Wanderers have improved dramatically since that result with 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in 2018. Sydney have consistently been able to win the midfield battle and The Wolf expects this one to be no different. O’Neill and Brilliante work harder off the ball than any other duo in the A-League. Their ability to win possession and shut down teams on the counter allow Adrian and Ninkovic to continually find themselves with the ball in wide open space. That will put extreme pressure on the trio of Bonevacia, Carrusca and Lustica. The Wolf doesn’t think they are up for it and if Gombau employs the same tactics as last time we could see a similar result. If this were any other match we could see Sydney FC  play a controlled game following a long trip – but not in the derby! Sydney to commit 100% and that means there can only be one result.
Best Bet: Sydney FC WIN ($1.55)
Value Bet: Sydney FC Win Both Halves ($3.40)

Best Bets Round 21

Best Bet: Newcastle Over 1.5 goals ($2.00)
Best Value Bet: Adelaide WIN ($3.40)


Best Bets
Round 20: 2-1
Round 20 ROI: 125.67%
Overall: 47-57
Overall ROI: 90.27%

Value Bets
Round 20: 2-1
Round 20 ROI: 200%
Overall: 26-78
Overall ROI: 79.38%

All Bets
Overall ROI: 84.83%