A-League Tips Round 18

It was a bad week for the ladder leaders with Sydney FC being held to a draw by the Mariners and the Jets going down at home to the Phoenix. All of a sudden the two Melbourne sides are back in the mix for a top two finish. The ‘Big Blue’ headlines the action in Round 18.

A-League Tips & Preview Round 18

Melbourne City v Newcastle – (Thur 7:50pm)
Everything City touched turned to goal last week from deflections to long range strikes from distance and acute angles. Three wins and a draw in their last for, coupled with a Jets loss last week has seen the gap between them shrink to just 4 points. It means both sides will be pulling out all the stops in pursuit of maximum points and it makes for a real end to end battle. The fact that the Jets are playing on the road ensures that there will be goals in this one. The Over is a perfect 7-0 in their 7 away games this season with both teams finding the back of the net in all of those matches. There have also been at least 3 goals in each of the lat 9 meetings between them. We will have a goal fest on out hands.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.70)
Value Bet: Over 3.5 goals ($3.00)

Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC – (Fri 7:50pm)
The Big Blue will always be one of the biggest matches of the season and it is a series that Sydney have had the better of over the last few seasons. The Sky Blues are undefeated in their last 6 against Melbourne (4 wins, 2 draws) and that includes the penalty shootout win to claim the A-League title. The battles between them have been very tactical since Graham Arnold has taken over and loyal Wolf followers will have heard the following before… Both sides like to take control in the middle of the park and build their attack gradually. It is the reason why the Under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings. Rarely will we see either of these sides flood men forward aimlessly. O’Neill and Brilliante have provided Sydney with more muscle in midfield in comparison to the silky passing and calmness of Milligan and Troisi. Terry Antonis will face his former club, with Barbarouses, Leroy George and Berisha to form a dangerous quartet. The battle royale is likely to end in a share of the spoils.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.95)
Value Bet: Draw ($3.40)

Wellington v Adelaide – (Sat 5:35pm)
Adelaide’s 5-0 loss was made to look far worse than it was with the side conceding three late goals. Their problem… they are arguably the worst team in A-League in terms of converting goal scoring opportunities. Stamatelopoulos should have given them the lead early while Blackwood missed a sitter when the match was still in the balance. 19 goals in 17 games is not going to get it done at this level and the scary part is that they lead the league in terms of shot with 255. That is 24 more than Sydney FC but the Sky Blues have scored more than twice the amount of goals (39). If they are wasteful at Westpac Stadium the Nix will make them pay. Wellington have found the back of the net in each of their last 13 home games with an average of over 2 goals per game in that stretch. The Wolf cannot see the visitors scoring twice and that makes the Phoenix a bet.
Best Bet: Wellington WIN ($2.60)
Value Bet: Wellington Over 2.5 goals ($5.00)

Central Coast v Brisbane – (Sat 7:50pm)
The Mariners are proving to be Sydney FC’s kryptonite. They held the league leaders to a draw at Allianz and created enough chances to beat the champions for a second time this season. With just 1 loss in their last 5 they have moved to within 3 points of a top 6 spot and they couldn’t be hosting Brisbane at a better time. The Roar came out on top against the Glory but it is their midweek loss in the ACL which has The Wolf excited. All of their key players featured in that match and he says that 3 games in a week are far too much to ask for from the oldest team in the A-League. He can see fatigue playing it’s part on Papadopoulos (33), Holman (33), McKay (35), Khalfallah (35) and Maccarone (38). Brisbane certainly won’t be pushing the pace and with the Unders going 8-1 in the Mariners last 9, goals will be hard to come by.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($2.00)
Value Bet: Teams To Score – Central Coast Only ($3.60)

Perth v Western Sydney – (Sun 8:30pm)
Kenny Lowe is doing well to hold onto his job as the coach of the Glory. His side crashed to it’s 6th consecutive loss and defensively they are in shambles. They have conceded 17 goals in that stretch which makes it a league worst 36 goals for the season. The Glory have conceded in the opening 10 minutes in 3 of their last 4 matches so look for the Wanderers to come out with a real intent! The goals will flow and in an open encounter The Wolf will be backing the Wanderers.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.61)
Value Bet: Western Sydney WIN ($2.60)

Best Bets Round 18

Best Bet: CCM v Brisbane – Under 2.5 goals ($2.00)
Value Bet: Wellington Over 2.5 goals ($5.00)

Results

Best Bets
Round 17: 1-4
Round 17 ROI: 49%
Overall: 36-47
Overall ROI: 86.33%

Value Bets
Round 17: 1-4
Round 17 ROI: 43%
Overall: 16-67
Overall ROI: 65.38%

All Bets
Overall ROI: 75.86%

Discuss