A-League Tips Round 10

The Sydney Derby takes centre stage and as per usual you can throw the form guide out the window for it. A packed ANZ will be on hand to see the next installment in what is quickly becoming one of the biggest rivalries in world football.

The Wolf also has a 5 chipper for us! Over 2.5 goals in Brisbane v Wellington.

A-League Tips & Preview Round 10

Melbourne Victory v Adelaide – (Fri 7:50pm)
A come from behind win away to Wellington could be exactly what the doctor ordered for a struggling Melbourne Victory. They will be boosted by the return of Milligan and this will effectively be the first time this season that we will see them at virtually full strength. There will be no shortage of confidence in the Melbourne dressing room with Muscat’s men having registered 3 wins and a draw in their last 4 against Adelaide. It comes as no surprise that Berisha has scored in each of his last 4 against the Reds and he is again set to give them nightmares. He has 3 goals in his last 4 since returning from suspension and with Adelaide still without Regan at the back – stopping the A-League’s all time top goalscorer will not be easy. Melbourne are yet to win at home this season and are well overdue for a breakout performance in front of their fans.
Best Bet: Melbourne Victory WIN ($1.95)
Value Bet: Match Result & Both Score – Melbourne ($3.75)

Brisbane v Wellington – (Sat 5:35pm)
The Phoenix are developing a very costly habit – letting winning leads slip! Last wee was the second time this season that they led by multiple goals and failed to win. Finding the back of the net has not been an issue for them but defence is another story all together. Their 14 goals scored gives them the 3rd best attack in the A-League but it is the 20 conceded (most in league) which has them glued to the bottom of the ladder. There have been 3 or more goals in theie last 5 matches with at least 5 goals in 5 of them! The pair played out a 3-3 draw in Wellington a month ago and this shapes as another shootout. Over 2.5 is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings and The Wolf is ready to roll out all 5 chips on it when they meet at Suncorp.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.60)
Value Bet: Over 4.5 goals ($4.75)

Western Sydney v Sydney FC – (Sat 7:50pm)
A packed ANZ Stadium will be on hand to witness the next installment of the Sydney Derby and as always it will deliver thrills, spills and a whole lot more. One thing we will not see a lot of is goals, according to The Wolf. The Wanderers have scored just 9 goals this season, the fewest of any A-League side, with Under 2.5 goals saluting in each of their last 5 matches. They are coming off back to back losses, failing to score in each of those matches and have managed just 3 goals in their last 5 A-League games. The Wolf says they will be helped by their opposition. Sydney FC play a much more conservative brand of football away from home with none of their 4 away games this season producing more than 2 goals. In fact all three of their away wins have come via a 1-0 score line. Under Graham Arnold they have shown an incredible ability to get the result they are looking for no matter what. They were caught napping twice early on when the two sides met in Round 3 and you can be certain that they will look to contain in the opening half in this one. The Wolf says to back Under 2.5 goals and those looking for value should take Sydney FC 1-0.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.90)
Value Bet: Sydney FC 1-0 ($8.00)

Perth v Newcastle – (Sat 10:00pm)
Both sides are coming off losses but The Wolf says it is the Jets who have plenty to look forward to. Despite losses in 2 of their last 3 they are still holding down second spot and their +10 differential is the best in the A-League. Their only two losses have come by a single goal while their wins have been nothing short of dominant. O’Donovan, the league’s leading scorer, and Wayne Brown are every chance of being for for the trip west which will only help the Jets in their pursuit for a second win in Perth in as many seasons. Both sides have scored in each of the last 5 meetings with 4 or more goals in each of the last 4 clashes. The Glory have lost just 2 of their last 11 league matches at home despite conceding at least once in 13 of their last 15 at nib Stadium. They have allowed multiple goals in 5 of their last 9 at the venue and with the Jets possessing the most potent attack in the A-League The Wolf likes them to get the job done.
Best Bet: Newcastle WIN ($2.70)
Value Bet: Newcastle Over 2.5 goals ($5.00)

Melbourne City v Central Coast – (Sun 7:00pm)
The big news heading into this one is the exit of Tim Cahill as the veteran goes in search of more game time for the lead in to the World Cup. It will be interesting to see where he ends up but he is most likely to seek a club abroad. Back onto the local scene where City are undefeated in their last 6 against the Mariners (5 wins). They have been able to score at will against the perennial cellar dwellers and have had a player bag a brace in each of those wins. That being said the Mariners are no longer a easy 3 points for their opponents and deserve their place in the top 4. Paul Okon has done a stellar job instilling belief in his youthful squad and they are finally defending as a unit. As we have seen over the last 18 months with Sydney FC – defence is the key to long term success. It has been a very long time since the Mariners were able to maintain 3 clean sheets in a 5 game stretch but there is no reason why they cannot continue. Under the lights at AAMI Park The Wolf says goals will be hard to come by. A share of the points is on the cards.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($2.20)
Value Bet: Draw ($3.80)

Best Bets Round 10

Best Bet: Brisbane v Wellington – Over 2.5 goals ($1.60)
Best Value Bet: Newcastle Over 2.5 goals ($5.00)


Best Bets
Round 9: 3-2
Round 9 ROI: 117%
Overall: 20-24
Overall ROI: 90.73%

Value Bets
Round 9: 1-4
Round 9 ROI: 70%
Overall: 9-35
Overall ROI: 72.62%

All Bets
Overall ROI: 81.68%