Newmarket Handicap – Runner By Runner

The Wolf’s Runner by Runner guide to The 2018 Newmarket Handicap run over 1200m at Flemington this Saturday. The race is steeped in history and has been won by champions such as Exceed And Excel, Takeover Target, Black Caviar & most recently Redkirk Warrior who is looking for back to back wins in the race. Here are The Wolf’s thoughts on the 2018 Newmarket Handicap.

2018 Newmarket Handicap Flemington Race 
Best Bet Rich Charm to WIN ($7.50)
Best Value Supido EACH WAY ($13.00/$4.00)
Quinella 4, 6, 14 ($20 for 666.67%)
First 4 1, 4, 6, 11, 14 ($40 for 33.33%)
2018 Newmarket Handicap

1. Redkirk Warrior ($6.50)
Barrier: 15

Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig

Jockey: Regan Bayliss

Last year’s winner of the race who resumed in style last start winning the Group 1 Lightning Stakes ahead of Redzel. He’s a dual G1 winner and with a second up record 5:3-0-0 you can be assured he’ll run very well. Against him however is the weight swing, he’ll have to lug 57.5kg on his back compared to Booker who will only have to shoulder 50kg and The Wolf insists that this could be the difference between winning and losing. The Wolf generally doesn’t tend to look to much into weight over the sprinting distances, especially if it is only 1-3kg, however a 7.5kg discrepancy between two runners is far too large to ignore and Redkirk Warrior will need to be at his best if he wants to win here.

2. Brave Smash ($7.50)
Barrier: 2

Trainer: Darren Weir

Jockey: Craig Williams

Last start winner of the Group 1 Futurity Stakes who is having his first start over this course and distance. He placed in The Everest which is a very good form reference for this and if he brings that form here he’ll go close. Against him however is that he is yet to race up the straight and the simple fact is that not every horse will like it. The Wolf is prepared to risk him off that and side with those who are proven up the straight at Flemington.

3. Lord Of The Sky ($41)
Barrier: 1

Trainer: Robbie Laing

Jockey: Kathy O’Hara

Lord Of The Sky won’t know himself with only 52kg on his back and dropping back to 1200m from 1400m last start should spark a sharp improvement. He’s won over this course and distance already this year when winning the G3 Standish Handicap ahead of Flippant; who has since franked the form by winning the G3 Tressady Stakes. He’s G1 placed before and The Wolf is expecting a big run, against him however is that Craig Newitt is aboard Missrock – indicating to The Wolf that Lord Of The Sky is the second pick of the Laing pair.

4. Rich Charm ($7.50)
Barrier: 5

Trainer: Udyta Clarke

Jockey: Patrick Moloney

Rich Charm arguably should have won the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes last start had he not been blocked for a run. He’s undefeated over this course and distance having won 2/2 and being second up here he looks set to peak. He loves the straight at Flemington and with only 52.5kg on his back he’ll prove tough to run down. Patrick Moloney is still searching for his first Group 1 win and The Wolf is expecting that it will come here for him and Rich Charm. He’ll be hard to beat with clear galloping room.

5. Rock Magic ($16)
Barrier: 6

Trainer: Chris Gangemi

Jockey: Damian Lane

Seasoned WA galloper who finished two lengths behind Redkirk Warrior. He’ll enjoy the 6kg drop in weight to 52.5kg, but it’s only relative as the majority of the field will be shouldering similiar. He hasn’t won since mid-2017 and The Wolf isn’t expecting his drought to end here. Not here.

6. Supido ($13)
Barrier: 14

Trainer: Mick Kent

Jockey: Beau Mertens

Supido is 1/1 over this course and distance and off his last start fourth looks set to run a big race. He drops 6kg off last start which he’ll love and from barrier 14 The Wolf expects to see him fly down the outside late. He’s an excellent place chance and The Wolf is expecting him to do exactly that.

7. Thronum ($13)
Barrier: 7

Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig

Jockey: Michael Dee

Group 2 Australia Stakes winner who finished fourth last start in the G1 C.F Orr Stakes at Caulfield. He drops back to 1200m which is ideal for this and with only 52.5kg on his back is another who won’t know himself. Against him however is that he is yet to have a start up the straight at Flemington and The Wolf would prefer to be with those who have proven themselves over this course and distance.

8. Fastnet Tempest ($34)
Barrier: 10

Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig

Jockey: Ben Allen

Ex-UK galloper who is yet to record a win below 1400m. It’s hard to see how he will be competitive first up over 1200m in a Group 1. Not here.

9. Ken’s Dream ($23)
Barrier: 8

Trainer: Darren Weir

Jockey: Dean Yendall

Ken’s Dream won a BM90 last start over this course and distance and whilst this was a top win, he’ll have needed to have improved sharply off that run to be competitive here and The Wolf has doubts around this.

10. Lucky Liberty ($41)
Barrier: 13

Trainer: Henry Dwyer

Jockey: Chris Parnham

Came from the clouds to place second behind Ken’s Dream last start over this course and distance. That was a good run, but you need to be very good to be able to do that in a Group 1 race and The Wolf doubts he is good enough. Lucky Liberty will be getting a wide berth from The Wolf.

11. Merchant Navy ($4.80)
Barrier: 4

Trainer: Aaron Purcell

Jockey: Chad Schofield

Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes winner who resumed well for third at Caulfield in the G2 Rubiton Stakes last start. He finished off well that day for third and should improve second up. He’s undefeated over 1200m and more importantly undefeated at Flemington. He’ll be in the finish.

12. Missrock ($20)
Barrier: 11

Trainer: Robbie Laing

Jockey: Craig Newitt

Group 1 Lightning Stakes placegetter who has shown that she is capable of performing in Group 1 races. Since her last start placing she has trialled well at Cranbourne and looks to perform well again. The Wolf respects her but he is confident that is a place chance only. One for the exotics.

13. So Si Bon ($20)
Barrier: 12

Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig

Jockey: Michael Walker

So Si Bon is having his first run for the new stable after impressing in a trial at Cranbourne. His sole win has come over 1200m and his best performances have been at 1400m and beyond. The Wolf is happy to watch him here and wait until he steps out over further.

14. Booker ($9.50)
Barrier: 3

Trainer: Matthew Ellerton & Simon Zahra

Jockey: Ben Thompson

Booker arguably should have won the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate and if she runs up to that performance she’ll go very close. She’s won over this course before and placed up the straight behind Catchy in the G2 Danehill Stakes. She gets the lightweight again and with Ben Thompson remaining aboard should get every chance throughout the run to score.

15. Catchy ($11)
Barrier: 9

Trainer: David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig

Jockey: Cory Parish

Group 1 Blue Diamond winner who flew home from the rear of the field to finish sixth last start in the G1 Oakleigh Plate. She’s undefeated second up and The Wolf is expecting an improved run from her here, however he doubts she will be good enough to win.

The Wolf’s Top 5

The Wolf is keen to side with Rich Charm; who arguably should have won last start and looks set to remain undefeated over this course and distance to give Patrick Moloney his first Group 1 win.

1 – Rich Charm
2 – Booker
3 – Supido
4 – Merchant Navy
5 – Redkirk Warrior

Bet on the latest 2018 Newmarket Handicap market here.