The Goodwood – Runner By Runner

Horse betting

The Wolf’s runner by runner guide to the Group 1 Goodwood to be run at Morphettville on Saturday.

Black Heart Bart is looking to make it back to back wins but it’s a big task with a full field of 20 runners set to oppose him.

Can he do it? Here are The Wolf’s thoughts on the 2017 Goodwood.

Black Heart Bart ($3.40)

The class runner of the race having won this race last year and multiple other Group 1 races including the CF Orr and Futurity at his last two starts. Unlike some of his key rivals, he is drawn to get all the favours and he races brilliantly fresh. The Wolf fully expects him to make it back to back Goodwood wins.

Malaguerra ($8)

Freshened into this after a slightly disappointing run in the TJ Smith where he finished midfield. On class he is the second pick after Bart having won at Group 1 level twice last year, and boasting a win over the champ when they met back in January. Drawn to get a reasonable run in barrier 8 and should be there in the finish.

Faatinah ($41)

Ran the race of his life to finish second in the Oakleigh Plate back in February but has been flat out disappointing since then. Last start he ran fourth in the DC McKay, a traditional lead up for this but that looks a length or two off what will be a required in the main event. Top four chance.

Hey Doc ($15)

Won what turned out to be a weak Australian Guineas before running midfield in the Doncaster Mile. Has been freshened up for this and should run okay but barrier 21 rules him out as a possible winning chance.

Illustrious Lad ($18)

Stablemate of Malaguerra who has been racing well without winning this campaign but barrier 23 (2o of 20 after scratchings) has torpedoed his chances.

Secret Agenda ($8.50)

Led all the way and won the Sangster Stakes here last start in dominant style. That was from barrier 16 and she has drawn better today in barrier 5. This race is naturally stronger being against the males as well, but she is in ripping form and should be able to find the front again. Expect her to take plenty of catching.

Vega Magic ($6.00)

Ex-Perth galloper having his first start with the Hayes operation. He was a smart galloper in Perth, but far from a superstar as shown by his back of midfield placing in the Winterbottom Stakes. While WA sprinters have raced on the eastern seaboard with success over the years, he still needs to prove he can measure up to this grade. Looks way under the odds at his current quote.

Rageese ($23)

Extremely frustrating galloper who is yet to win below 1300m – it’s a big ask to try and do that for the first time in a Group 1 race. Others look to have far stronger claims.

Karacatis ($51)

Veteran sprinter who had his birthday when winning the DC McKay last start. Won’t be in the finish from barrier 18.

Santa Ana Lane ($26)

Dominant last start winner of the Wagga Town Plate under 61Kg. Should be suited by a genuine tempo here and will be running on strongly at the end of proceedings. One for trifectas and first fours.

First Among Equals ($16)

Another WA galloper in the field although this one is still trained over there, by Simon Miller. He won the Northam Stakes last start and was competitive in the Group 1 Winterbottom against Sheidel and Takedown, which suggests he isn’t out of place against this field. Barrier 16 complicates matters but expect him to perform well. It seems hard to justify the difference in price between him and Vega Magic.

Riziz ($71)

A true icon of South Australian racing and he is coming off two consecutive wins. Wouldn’t surprise to see him run another competitive race here even if winning is perhaps beyond him.

Bassett ($41)

Held up and didn’t have much luck in the DC McKay, and his prior form was excellent, having won three on the trot. However, the barrier Gods have cursed him, and he looks likely to start in barrier 18 after scratchings. Unfortunately he isn’t good enough to win from out there.

Casino Wizard ($51)

Another stalwart of SA racing but looks out of his depth against Group 1 opposition.

Kapernick ($26)

Worked home nicely last start in the DC McKay but has always looked like being a couple of lengths off what is needed to win at the top level. Rough place chance.

Zedulon ($31)

Injury plagued galloper who ran okay at Caulfield over 1440m last month at his first run back from a long spell. Second up from a long spell and dropping back in distance isn’t an ideal recipe for winning at Group 1 level though.

Karlovasi ($51)

Handy Adelaide galloper but way outclassed against the best of these.

Viddora ($21)

Got home nicely in the Sangster to run second to Secret Agenda but never threatened as a winning chance. Should acquit herself well again but hard to see her turning the tables.

Sweet Sherry ($23)

Handy filly but it is a big step up from the weak Group 2 race she ran in last week to be competitive here. Well drawn so could sneak a place at odds.

Missrock ($26)

Another who ran okay in the Sangster but that’s not likely to be good enough to win this.

Lucky Liberty ($26)

Talented galloper on his day but hasn’t got within a bull’s roar of Group 1 company in his career so far, happy to leave out.

Lope De Capio ($101)

Another local having a throw at the stumps, no.

Counter Pulse ($71)

Ditto.

The Wolf’s Top 5

This race has a longer tail than the 1996 West Indies, with only a few serious winning chances. Black Heart Bart is the clear top pick and an ideal PRICE PUMP candidate.

1 – Black Heart Bart
2 – Secret Agenda
3 – Malaguerra
4 – First Among Equals
5 – Santa Ana Lane

Bet on the latest Goodwood market.

Odds correct as of 5.00pm, Tuesday 16 May.