Railway Stakes – Runner By Runner

The Wolf’s Runner by Runner guide to The 2017 Railway Stakes run over 1600m at Ascot this Saturday.

The race is steeped in history and has been won by champions such as Better Loosen Up, Northerly, Luckygray, Elite Belle and most recently Scales Of Justice who is looking for back to back Railway Stakes wins.

Here are The Wolf’s thoughts on The 2017 Railway Stakes.

Black Heart Bart ($6.50)
Barrier: 
8
Trainer:
Darren Weir
Jockey:
Brad Rawiller

Former W.A star who has won five Group 1 races since joining the Darren Weir Stable. He kicked off his 2017 campaign in style, winning back to back Group 1 races in the C.F Orr Stakes followed by the Futurity Stakes, both of which at Caulfield. Since then his best run has seen him place in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes behind Vega Magic and Tosen Stardom. His most recent run has seen him place fifth in the Underwood Stakes over 1800m, where he was well beaten by over two lengths. He battled on fairly in the straight that day and didn’t appear to let down with the turn of foot we know he is capable of, he’s had a mixed campaign this prep and if this race is an afterthought as The Wolf suspects then it’s very hard to tip him on top.

Scales Of Justice ($5.50)
Barrier: 13
Trainer:
Lindsay Smith
Jockey:
Douglas Whyte

Last year’s winner of the race who is ticking along very nicely heading into this. His 2017 campaign has been a successful one, where he won two stakes graded races in W.A before testing his ability in Melbourne under the care of Darren Weir. His first run in Melbourne was in the Bobbie Lewis over 1200m at Flemington, where he got lost up the straight which arguably cost him the race. He followed this up with a midfield finish in the Rupert Clark at Caulfield, where he was one of the widest runners turning for home but manage to stick on for seventh just behind Tosen Stardom, who has subsequently gone on to win the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes. His first run back in W.A last start was strong, where he knuckled down to finish a narrow third behind Silverstream and Great Shot in the Lee Steere Stakes. He’s undefeated at Ascot and over the mile and if he runs up to his best form here this record could well stay in tact.

Tom Melbourne ($7)
Barrier:
1
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey:
Damien Oliver

Perennial placegetter who has finished second in five out his six runs this prep, including twice at Group 1 level. He’s looked the winner on numerous occasions, however he regularly finds one better which is becoming a costly occurrence for his supporters. He once again gets an excellent chance to score a well deserved Group 1 win and his stats over the mile this prep have produced two placings, which cannot be ignored. He’s drawn barrier 1 for the task where Damien Oliver should be able to position him on the speed and slot in just behind the likely leading pair in Great Shot and Scales Of Justice. He maps to get the gun run and his form suggests he’ll be very competitive, but his record of five seconds doesn’t exactly inspire The Wolf to put him on top. One for the exotics.

Supply And Demand ($7.50)
Barrier: 19
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Jockey:
Joshua Parr

Gelding from the Waterhouse/Bott Yard who last prep won the Caloundra Cup and Grafton Cup in succession. He was seen as a stayer after those runs however he has since returned in great order, placing second in two runs behind Cabeza De Vaca and then Hellova Street over 1400m. The Wolf suspects these two performances sparked Gai’s interest in sending him to W.A for a tilt at a Group 1 race over the mile which he should be ready to peak third up for. He’s a horse with plenty of upside who should be able to put in a very strong performance, however against him is the draw, he’s drawn barrier 19 which will force Parr to get him going quickly to get him on the speed. Horses can overcome the wide draw, but for a horse that has settled on the speed nearly all of his life he’ll be doing a lot of work to position himself there which will leave little in the tank come the finishing line. The Wolf is happy to risk him here.

Ulmann ($11)
Barrier: 5
Trainer:
Darren Weir
Jockey:
Damian Lane

Handy gelding from the Darren Weir Stables who won the Group 3 Moonga Stakes over 1400m at Caulfield two starts ago. He followed this up with a fourth placing behind Hellova Street and Supply And Demand in the Group 3 Chatham Stakes at Flemington, where he appeared to only battle away fairly. His stats over the mile read for 3: 1-1-1, which isn’t too bad, however they haven’t been against Group 1 company that he meets here and if he wants to be competitive in this he’ll have needed to improved marginally. Happy to risk.

Great Shot ($21)
Barrier: 11
Trainer:
Rhys Radford
Jockey:
Craig Staples

Flying leader who who has placed in three stakes races from four this prep. He’s mixed it with the best throughout his career, placing behind both Man Booker and Silverstream on a number of occasions throughout his career. His biggest win to date has come in the Listed Belmont Guineas over the mile so the 1600m on offer here shouldn’t be a problem for him. He’ give his supporters all from the front and certainly prove tough to run down, but Silverstream has had his measure twice in this prep and The Wolf is confident the same will happen again here. If you’re playing the first fours or trifectas he could be one to include, due to his front running style of racing.

Silverstream ($14)
Barrier: 20
Trainer: 
Adam Durrant
Jockey:
William Pike

A winner of two from three this prep who should be ready to peak over the mile. Her last two starts have seen her win the Group 3 Northerly Stakes and Group 2 Lee Steere Stakes over 1400m, where she has flown home from the back of the field to get up in the last stride. She steps up to the mile here and if her last two performances are any indication she will eat up every metre of the 1600m on offer. She’s fourth up here, ready to peak and stepping out the mile should be a welcome one. Pike takes the reins here indicating that she is the clear top pick of the Peters’ horses and if he is able to slot her in from the wide draw to settle worse than midfield she’ll be able to run down the leaders and prove very tough to beat.

All Our Roads ($15)
Barrier: 18
Trainer:
Chris Waller
Jockey:
Craig Williams

Kiwi import who off last start could be the potential speed in the race alongside Great Shot, Scales Of Justice, Tom Melbourne and potentially Gatting. Last start he flew out to lead over the mile at Flemington, only to be run down late to finish fourth. He put in an honest performance and he’ll be much better for the run, but after being gifted barrier 18 The Wolf expects he’ll be doing a lot of work early to get even remotely near the speed which will leave very little in the tank come the final furlong. Not here.

Cosmic Storm ($23)
Barrier: 16
Trainer:
Grant & Alana Williams
Jockey:
Jarrad Noske

Clear second choice of the Peters’ horses as Pike has elected to hop on Silverstream instead of her. She’s a winner of seven from 13 including three times at Listed level and once at Group 3 level. First up she ran in the Northerly Stakes where she ran an eye-catching fourth placing behind Silverstream, after being blocked for a run. She backed this up with a plain effort from the rear in the Asian Beau Stakes which was won by Pounamu. Her stats over this course and distance are very hard to ignore, but with Pike hopping on Silverstream it clearly indicates to The Wolf who is going better heading into this and although he doesn’t expect Cosmic Storm to win, he does expect she’ll run a race and should be included in the exotics.

Disposition ($41)
Barrier: 10
Trainer:
Adam Durrant
Jockey:
Shaun Mc Gruddy

Dual Group 1 placegetter who has put in some very mediocre performances this prep. She won the Listed Hannons Handicap three starts ago but this was against a pretty weak field, all of which would struggle against a field of this calibre. She won’t be turning the tables on the likes of Great Shot, Silverstream and co. here.

Gatting ($21)
Barrier: 3
Trainer:
Darren Mcauliffe
Jockey:
Lee Newman

W.A.T.C Derby winner who is coming off a very strong win in the Listed Ascot Gold Cup. His form prior to this was strong, narrowly being beaten by Silverstream at Ascot and then finishing a length off Material Man in the Northam Cup. Following his Northam Cup run connections were clearly displeased with Matthieu Autier’s ride and replaced him with William Pike for his run at Ascot, since then he has not been recalled to ride Gatting; with Lee Newman being booked who has requested to ride the horse 1kg overweight to carry 54kg. He’ll run well in this and and a placing is not out of his reach, but The Wolf is confident that he is better over 1800m and beyond.

Material Man ($21)
Barrier:
12
Trainer:
Justin Warwick
Jockey:
Lucy Warwick

2017 Northam Cup winner who boasts an impressive record of 10 wins from 16 starts. He’s a talent this guy, however against him is that these were all against very weak fields apart from his Northam Cup win, where he enjoyed a very soft run on the rails to score late by half a length. His last start run in the R.J Peters Stakes saw him well beaten by a few others in this and The Wolf is confident he won’t be turning the tables on them here.

Observational ($31)
Barrier: 6
Trainer:
John Sadler
Jockey:
Joseph Azzopardi

Last start eight placegetter in the Sale Cup who followed this up by being controversially scratched from the Sandown Eclipse Stakes due to an elevated TCO2 reading. His last start run in the Sale Cup was poor; where he struggled to finish off and was beaten by nearly seven lengths. This form is far from good enough to be competitive here.

Pounamu ($19)
Barrier: 14
Trainer:
Alan Mathews
Jockey:
Patrick Carbery

Last start Group 3 winner who bloused them late in the Group 3 Asian Beau Stakes over 1400m at Ascot last start.  He flew home to win that day in what was an eye-catching performance ahead of the likes of Variation, Whispering Brook And Cosmic Star. Very hard to ignore a performance like that however against him is the fact that Scales Of Justice had his measure on two occasions last prep and it’s very hard to suggest how he will be turning the tables here.

Sovereign Nation ($14)
Barrier:
15
Trainer:
David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig
Jockey:
Chris Parnham

Group 1 Toorak Handicap placegetter who finished just over a length behind Tosen Stardom, after flying home from the rear. Following this he finished seventh when beaten by four lengths in the Cantala Stakes behind Tom Melbourne who meets here. He’s drawn wide in barrier 15 which on paper appears to be a concern, but for a back-marker like him he’ll be able to settle at the rear with ease. Worth noting that when he placed in the Toorak Handicap he jumped from barrier 17 and was ridden cold, which clearly brings out the best in him. Expect him to run home late, but The Wolf doubts he’ll be good enough to win here.

Variation ($11)
Barrier: 
4
Trainer:
Stephen Miller
Jockey:
Brad Parnham

W.A Guineas winner who who is yet to miss a placing this prep. He’s close to the only winner out of the barrier draw, being gifted 4 while all other leading chances will all jump from the carpark. He’s put in three very strong performances this prep, most notably last start where he was ridden cold and flew home late to grab third behind Properantes. He hit the line well that day and being fourth up here he should be ready to peak. He’ll get a soft run in transit and if he runs up to his best here he’ll go very close.

Tradesman ($71) (1E)
Barrier:
9
Trainer:
Robert & Todd Harvey
Jockey:
Not Notified

Well beaten last start by over two lengths in the Asian Beau Stakes by Pounamu and Variation. His best runs have come at 2000m and beyond, so expect if he makes the field he’ll be better for the run and could put in a performance later in the carnival over further distances.

Royal Star ($26) (2E)
Barrier:
17
Trainer:
Grant & Alana Williams
Jockey: 
Not Notified

R.J Peters Stakes placegetter who needs two scratchings to make the field. She’s a young mare on the rise and if she is to make the field she’ll put in a very big performance as last start she was able to beat home Variation. She’s accepted for the Magic Millions-Tattersall’s Cup where she’ll be ridden by William Pike and be one of the leading chances. The Wolf much prefers her in that race.

Bollywood Blitz ($151) (3E)
Barrier:
2
Trainer:
Neville Parnham
Jockey: 
Not Notified

Three scratchings are unlikely and this galloper being competitive here is also unlikely. His recent form would need to drastically turn around for him to be a chance in this.

Tonkatuff ($201) (4E)
Barrier:
7
Trainer:
Brad Graham
Jockey: 
Not Notified

Unplaced this prep and the likelihood of four scratchings is low. Not here.

The Wolf’s Top 5

The Wolf is keen to side with the local in Silverstream, who should be able to camp off the speed and run down the leaders.

1 – Silverstream
2 – Scales Of Justice
3 – Variation
4 – Tom Melbourne
5 – Cosmic Storm

Bet on the latest 2017 Railway Stakes market here.

Odds correct as of 4:00pm Wednesday, 22 November.