The Wolf’s 2016 US Election Guide
The Wolf has analysed the 2016 US election and found plenty of great bets for election punters.
Winning Party: Democrats ($1.40)
Next US President: Hilary Clinton ($1.42)
The recent email scandal has only served to make Hilary Clinton eminently bettable. She leads all major polls and will attract a bigger turnout from the ‘silent majority’ than in any recent election.
Donald Trump % Vote: 44.00 – 46.99% ($2.80)
Not since 1984 has a losing candidate received less than 47% of the popular vote (bar 1992 when third-party candidate Ross Perot polled exceptionally well) but Trump has polarised too many to go any higher.
Electoral College Vote Handicap: Hilary Clinton -99.5 ($2.25)
This market will likely be decided by Ohio. Clinton looks good for at least 302 with a win in Ohio to boost her to 320 and a backdoor cover.
State of Georgia: Republicans ($1.14)
Georgia has always voted conservative and Hilary Clinton is unlikely to change that. Polls have Trump well ahead.
State of Alaska: Republicans ($1.19)
Alaska has voted Republican at 10 straight elections, polling over 54.5% in the last four.
State of Florida: Democrats ($2.00)
Florida has gone with the eventual president at the last five elections and nine of the last 10. Most polls have Clinton ahead.
State of Iowa: Democrats ($3.40)
Betting in this is totally wrong. The Democrats have won Iowa at five straight elections and polls are incredibly close with some having Clinton in front.
State of New Mexico: Democrats ($1.10)
New Mexico is not even considered a battleground state. With a high population of Latin American decent, there is no hope this goes Trump.
State of Colorado: Democrats ($1.30)
Clinton leads Colorado polls by nearly three percentage points and the state has gone with the eventual winner in eight of the last nine elections.
State of Minnesota: Democrats ($1.15)
Clinton has double-digit leads in polling and the state last went Republican in 1972. Minnesota goes Clinton.
State of Virginia: Democrats ($1.16)
Virginia polls have Clinton leading by anywhere between 4 and 12 points. She is in no danger of losing the state.
State of Maine: Democrats ($1.10)
Clinton leads all polls by at least six percentage points and the Democrats have won Maine at five straight elections. This state is not in dispute.
State of North Carolina: Democrats ($1.88)
The key battleground state. Has typically gone Republican but polling is pointing to a close Clinton win.
State of Arizona: Republicans ($1.36)
Trump leads most credible polls and is spending little in the state suggesting he is confident of a Republican retain.
State of New Hampshire: Democrats ($1.40)
New Hampshire has gone Democrat in five of the last six elections. Clinton leads most major polls.
State of Ohio: Democrats ($3.00)
Ohio has gone with the winning candidate at every election since 1944 bar one making Clinton a good chance of an upset in this rustbelt state.