Election Tip Sheet: Western Australia
In the countdown to Election 2016, The Wolf will dish out his best election bets with all 150 seats available at William Hill.
Some incredible polling numbers in Western Australia has the state shaping as a key battleground at the upcoming election where Labor is hoping to make significant in-roads in a typically poor-performing state. The Coalition, however, are hoping that voters will be able to put disaffection with the state Liberal government to one side and are hopeful of retaining the bulk of their seats.
With 16 seats in Western Australia with the addition of the new seat of Burt, WA has long been a bastion for the Liberal Party with the ALP losing seats at three consecutive elections, a run they will be confident of arresting in 2016.
Labor enter the 2016 election holding just three seats following a disastrous decade in the state. None of Fremantle ($1.06), Perth ($1.08) or Brand ($1.02) are in any danger of turning blue.
With swings up to 7.5% forecast against the government, six Coalition seats as well as the new seat of Burt are considered in play.
Of those six seats, Pearce ($1.06) and Canning ($1.03) have seen heavy support for the Coalition and won’t be going Labor. The Liberal Party are also heavy favourites in Stirling at $1.22 with a significant cushion of 9.0%.
There is no question that Swan ($1.50) and Hasluck ($1.60) are well and truly in play though there has been money for the Liberal Party to retain both. There has been plenty of polling done in Hasluck with the Liberals credited with a 53-47 edge.
The one currently held Coalition seat expected to go Labor is Cowan where the ALP are favoured at $1.75 to overcome the 4.5% swing required. Liberal incumbent Luke Simpkins is $2. Seat polling has the parties locked 50-50.
Burt is a compelling seat with the ALP favoured at $1.53 despite the Coalition holding a large notional margin. There is plenty of value for the Coalition to win at $2.35.
Coalition-held Perth seats of Moore ($1.02), Tangney ($1.02) and Curtin ($1.01) as well as the rural seats of Forrest ($1.02), Durack ($1.10) and O’Connor ($1.12) are not in any danger of switching.
Perth: ALP @ $1.08 (5 Chips)
Durack: Liberal @ $1.10 (5 Chips)
O’Connor: Liberal @ $1.12 (5 Chips)
Hasluck: Liberal @ $1.60 (4 Chips)
Swan: Liberal @ $1.50 (4 Chips)
Burt: Liberal @ $2.35 (2 Chips)