Election Tip Sheet: Victoria
In the countdown to Election 2016, The Wolf will dish out his best election bets with all 150 seats available at William Hill.
Once a major player in determining the fate of federal elections, Victoria has had little impact in each of the last two elections with the state remaining fervently Labor in the face of national swings to the Coalition.
Again there is little interest in Victoria with few seats legitimately in-play even with Labor leader Bill Shorten being a Victorian.
Heading into the election, the ALP hold 19 Victorian seats to 16 for the Coalition with one Green and one Independent seat.
The only ALP seat in any real danger is Batman with the Labor seats of Bendigo ($1.10), Chisholm ($1.34), Bruce ($1.22), Wills ($1.16) and Melbourne Ports ($1.16) all value bets that will shorten come polling day.
Batman betting has been wild with the Greens backed into favouritism before the Liberal Party announced it would be preferencing the ALP candidate David Feeney. The ALP were automatically wound into $1.25 but he has since drifted to $1.50 with the Greens $2.40 to claim the seat.
The Coalition also don’t look in much trouble with most of their seats with most Liberal seats shorter than $1.50-
The three-cornered contest in Murray is a battle between the Liberals and Nationals. Preference deals have the Liberals into $1.30 but Nationals candidate Damian Drum, a former AFL coach, is well over the odds at $3.20.
Cross-benchers Adam Bandt (Green) of Melbourne and Cathy McGowan (Independent) of Indi look in no danger at $1.03 and $1.12 respectively.
The only real battleground seats are the Coalition-held seats of Deakin, Corangamite, La Trobe and Dunkley. The state dispute with the CFA and some strong Coalition campaigning has the party resounding favourites to win them all.
All four have seen the Liberal Party backed off the map. Deakin is now at $1.45 and the 3.2% margin looks like it will be well held. Corangamite is off the map into $1.25 on the back of three polls that have the Liberal Party well ahead. Dunkley has seen one poll with the Coalition ahead 52-48 with $1.40 being bet about Liberal Chris Chester. La Trobe is being held at a margin of 4% with $1.45 on offer. All are bets with very little expected to change in Victoria this time around.
Chisholm: ALP @ $1.34 (5 Chips)
Deakin: Liberal Party @ $1.45 (5 Chips)
Corangamite: Liberal Party @ $1.25 (5 Chips)
Indi: Independent @ $1.12 (4 Chips)
Bendigo: ALP @ $1.10 (4 Chips)
Bruce: ALP @ $1.22 (4 Chips)
Dunkley: Liberal Party @ $1.45 (4 Chips)
La Trobe: Liberal Party @ $1.45 (4 Chips)
Wills: ALP @ $1.16 (4 Chips)
Melbourne Ports: ALP @ $1.16 (4 Chips)
Murray: National Party @ $3.20 (2 Chips)