Election Tip Sheet: Tight Races

Australain federal election

Election Tip Sheet: Tight Races

In the countdown to Election 2016, The Wolf will dish out his best election bets with all 150 seats available at William Hill.

Mayo (SA)
Liberal: $1.80
Nick Xenophon Team: $1.90

Incumbent: Liberal
History: Liberal since creation in 1984
Polling: June 14 Newspoll has NXT up 52-48
Betting Moves: Nick Xenophon team $3.40 into $1.90 with 100% of bets on NXT

The Wolf’s Tip: Nick Xenophon Team ($1.90)

Bet on Election 2016

Cowan (WA)
ALP: $1.75
Liberal: $2.00

Incumbent: Liberal
History: Swinging seat with the Liberal Party winning it in 2007 after the ALP held it from 1998 to 2007. Changed four times since ’84.
Polling: Two Reachtel polls have the parties locked 50-50.
Betting Moves: Liberal incumbent Luke Simpkins has been backed from $2.10 to $2.00 and has seen 83% of all turnover.

The Wolf’s Tip: ALP ($1.75)

Bet on Election 2016

Batman (Vic)
ALP: $1.65
Greens: $2.15

Incumbent: ALP
History: ALP since creation in 1934 with Greens running second at last two polls.
Polling: Greens lead primary vote 41-28 over ALP according to June 14 Lonergan poll.
Betting Moves: Greens have been bet from $3.80 to $2.15 in last week after blowing out following preference announcement from Liberal Party.

The Wolf’s Tip: ALP ($1.65)

Bet on Election 2016

Solomon (NT)
ALP: $1.60
Country Liberal: $2.20

Incumbent: Liberal
History: Created in 2001 and has changed at two of the four subsequent elections.
Polling: An Independent poll has the ALP ahead 61-39.
Betting Moves: The ALP are $1.72 into $1.60 with 96% of all turnover.

The Wolf’s Tip: ALP ($1.60), switching from Liberal selection

Bet on Election 2016

Hasluck (WA)
Liberal: $1.60
ALP: $2.20

Incumbent: Liberal
History: Switched hands at four of the five elections since its 2001 creation.
Polling: Liberals lead 53-47 according to a June 16 Reachtel poll.
Betting Moves: The Liberal Party has been smashed from $2.40 into $1.60 with 93% of money for Liberal incumbent Ken Wyatt.

The Wolf’s Tip: Liberal ($1.60)

Bet on Election 2016

Macarthur (NSW)
ALP: $1.60
Liberal: $2.20

Incumbent: Liberal
History: Has been held by the Liberal Party since 1996.
Polling: A June 14 Newspoll has the parties locked 50-50.
Betting Moves: Labor have been backed from $1.80 to $1.60 though the money is running 53% for the Coalition.

The Wolf’s Tip: Liberal ($2.20)

Bet on Election 2016

Burt (WA)
ALP: $1.53
Liberal: $2.35

Incumbent: New seat
History: This is the first election the seat will be contested
Polling: Labor is ahead 51-49 according to a Newspoll on June 14.
Betting Moves: ALP $1.60 into $1.53 with 99% of money for ALP.

The Wolf’s Tip: Liberal ($2.35)

Bet on Election 2016

Swan (WA)
Liberal: $1.50
ALP: $2.40

Incumbent: Liberal
History: Liberal since 2007.
Polling: No seat polling conducted.
Betting Moves: Liberal Party has been smashed from $1.85 to $1.50 with 96% of betting for incumbent Steve Irons.

The Wolf’s Tip: Liberal ($1.50)

Bet on Election 2016

Eden-Monaro (NSW)
ALP: $1.45
Coalition: $2.55

Incumbent: Liberal
History: The seat has gone with the winning party since 1972.
Polling: A June 13 Reachtel poll has the ALP ahead 53-47.
Betting Moves: Labor have been off the map, in from $2.30 to $1.45.

The Wolf’s Tip: Coalition ($2.55)

Bet on Election 2016

La Trobe (Vic)
Coalition: $1.45
ALP: $2.60

Incumbent: Liberal
History: The seat has changed hands at three of the last four elections.
Polling: No seat polling released.
Betting Moves: Liberal Party is $1.50 into $1.45.

The Wolf’s Tip: Liberal ($1.45)

Bet on Election 2016

Capricornia (Qld)
ALP: $1.45
Coalition: $2.60

Incumbent: Liberal
History: Traditional ALP seat only lost in the annihilations of 1975, 1996 and 2013.
Polling: A June 14 Newspoll has the parties locked 50-50.
Betting Moves: Labor is $1.55 into $1.45 but little betting action.

The Wolf’s Tip: ALP ($1.45) 

Bet on Election 2016