Election Tip Sheet: South Australia
In the countdown to Election 2016, The Wolf will dish out his best election bets with all 150 seats available at William Hill.
South Australia has emerged as one of the more interesting states at the upcoming federal election thanks to the rise of Nick Xenophon and his potential to upset the major parties in seats typically considered very safe.
South Australia consists of 11 seats with the Liberal Party holding six to Labor’s five with just one seat changing hands at each of the last two elections.
The safe Labor seats of Port Adelaide (14%) and Makin (9.7%) aren’t considered to be in any significant danger with the ALP $1.02 and $1.10 respectively. Makin (5.1%) and Wakefield (3.4%) are only marginally more at risk at $1.12 and $1.16 but the general feeling is Nick Xenophon’s team are likely to have a bigger impact in blue ribbon Coalition seats rather than strong Labor seats.
The one Labor seat ALP insiders seem concerned about is Adelaide, held by popular MP Kate Ellis since 2004. Internal Labor polling has Ellis behind Liberal challenger David Colovic but with a margin of 4% and a high profile the poll has likely been leaked to rally support behind Ellis. She is $1.14 to win her seat for the fifth time.
The Liberal Party currently hold four seats with margins of greater than 10% with Barker, Grey, Mayo and Sturt all regarded as blue-ribbon seats for the Coalition. Barker and Sturt seem to be safe from the NXT push with the Liberals $1.06 and $1.16 respectively to claim the seats. Grey is marginally closer with Liberal Rowan Ramsey $1.20 to retain. And he should.
Mayo is a different story completely and a seat the Coalition fears is in very real danger. Liberal candidate Jamie Briggs is a controversial MP and one out to $1.60 with the NXT candidate Rebekha Sharkie into $2.20. Two electorate polls have Briggs well behind. Sharkie should be favourite on all indicators.
The two seats that typically provide the most interest are Boothby and Hindmarsh. Boothby is a Liberal seat with a margin of over 7% and is in no real danger of going down. The $1.20 on offer is significant overs and a reaction to the fears over NXT. The Liberal Party are off the map in Hindmarsh, into $1.36 to retain the seat. An early poll has the Coalition well ahead in the seat.