Election Tip Sheet: Queensland
In the countdown to Election 2016, The Wolf will dish out his best election bets with all 150 seats available at William Hill.
It was on the back of a historic Queensland vote that hometown hero Kevin Rudd swept the ALP to victory in 2007 and it was a backlash against the party that threw him out that led to dire results in 2010 and 2013.
Early polling suggested the ALP was set to make strong in-roads into Queensland, arguably the most important state of the last three elections, but some strong sandbagging from the Turnbull Government and some less-than-impressive polling should see the Liberal National Party retain most of the 22 seats they currently hold of the 30 available north of the Tweed.
In 11 of those seats, the Coalition are certainties with $1.06 or shorter being offered.
In a further seven LNP seats, the incumbent goes in at $1.28 or shorter. There is plenty of value backing the LNP in Dickson at $1.14, Herbert at $1.20 and Leichhardt at $1.22. Peter Dutton is likely to survive a swing against him due to his high profile while the Coalition have invested heavily in North Queensland.
The only Coalition seats that seem at all vulnerable are those of Forde, Brisbane, Petrie and Capricornia. The LNP are $1.40 to hold Forde – a seat former ALP premier Peter Beattie couldn’t win at the last election and has never gone Labor under a Liberal Government – and $1.36 to retain Brisbane, where they lead 51-49 according to a June 14 Newspoll.
Petrie and Capricornia are the two LNP seats expected to be lost.
Petrie has gone with government since 1987 but the LNP hold it on a wafer-thin margin of 0.5%, a mark that should be easily covered with a forecast state-wide swing to Labor of around 3%. The ALP are $1.30 to take the seat.
Capricornia has been a major focus for both parties thanks to a margin of 0.8% and a recent poll that had the parties locked at 50-50. The LNP have put a mighty effort into saving the seat that was won last election but it is a traditional ALP state only lost in government wipeouts making the $1.45 Labor exceptional value.
The LNP will almost certainly pick up the seat of Fisher as well, reclaiming the safe conservative seat after a single term with Clive Palmer at the helm. A price of $1.03 is on offer at William Hill.
None of the six Labor seats look in any danger with Moreton, Oxley, Rankin, Griffith, Lilley and Blair all south of $1.08.
Bob Katter should revert to being the only Queensland cross-bencher with the outspoken Member for Kennedy $1.02 to retain his seat.
Queensland shapes as seeing a minor swing to Labor but a gain of just two seats seems the likely result.
Herbert: Liberal National Party @ $1.20 (5 Chips)
Leichhardt: Liberal National Party @ $1.22 (5 Chips)
Dickson: Liberal National Party @ $1.14 (5 Chips)
Capricornia: ALP @ $1.45 (5 Chips)
Bonner: Liberal National Party @ $1.28 (4 Chips)
Petrie: ALP @ $1.30 (3 Chips)