The Wolf’s Top 10 Election Eve Bets
The Wolf has been all over the 2016 election and with polling less than a day away, here are his Top 10 election bets.
Lingiari (NT) – ALP ($1.20)
The Northern Territory seat of Lingiari has never gone to the Liberal Party and won’t be this time around with a swing back to the ALP forecast.
Braddon (Tas) – Liberal ($1.30)
There has been some suspect polling in Tasmania that has made Liberal incumbent Brett Whiteley plenty of value.
Batman (Vic) – ALP ($1.85)
The negative publicity has hurt incumbent David Feeney but the preference deal with the Liberals should see the ALP retain its once safest seat.
Eden-Monaro (NSW) – Coalition ($2.90)
Its long history as a bellwether seat with the sophomore surge for incumbent Peter Hendy has this a ridiculous price.
Cowper (NSW) – Coalition ($1.34)
The decision of independent Rob Oakeshott has made this safe Coalition seat interesting. Oakeshott likely has no interest in winning though so take the inflated price on Luke Hartsuyker.
Grey (SA) – Liberal ($1.40)
The surge of the Xenophon team has created plenty of value in South Australia and this is the best seat to bet.
Hasluck (WA) – Liberal ($1.28)
Ken Wyatt has this seat by 6.0% and that buffer should be more than enough on current WA polling. Wyatt also garners a strong personal vote.
Swan (WA) – Liberal ($1.18)
On a margin of 7.3%, Swan is a safe Liberal seat now with the forecast swing in WA reduced significantly on recent polls.
Capricornia (QLD) – ALP ($1.40)
Labor only lose this seat after they are wiped out of government. They should be able to reclaim this seat with a swing of less than 1% required.
Forde (QLD) – Liberal National Party ($1.25)
The LNP is doing a lot better than expected in Queensland and the 4.5% swing required in Forde is too much to overcome.