|Match Preview||Recommended Bets|
|New Zealand Warriors v Brisbane Broncos
Saturday, April 14, 3pm (AEST)
Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland
|Best: Brisbane +5.5 ($1.91)
Value: Brisbane/New Zealand ($7.50)
First Tryscorer: James Roberts
The Warriors have shocked many experts with their incredible 5-0 start to the season and will be hoping to knock off another QLD team at home in consecutive weeks. They will host a desperate Broncos side, coming off a tough 15-10 loss to the Knights. Are the Warriors the real deal?
The Warriors are undefeated through five weeks, posting the third best defence and third best attack. New Zealand have scored at least 20 points in all five matches. They have the second best differential in the premiership. Brisbane are remarkably down in 12th position with a 2-3 record with those wins coming at home to the Cowboys and in controversial circumstances against the Tigers. The Broncos have the third worst attack in the premiership. They have averaged 10.3ppg in three games away from Suncorp.
Issac Luke v Andrew McCullough: Luke played arguably his best game in a Warriors jersey last week against the Cowboys and polled two Dally M points in the process. He was a constant threat from dummy-half and created plenty of second-phase play with six offloads. McCullough has been Mr Consistent for the Broncos, averaging 44 tackles per game and doesn’t mind a shot at the tryline if he gets close enough. Both hookers will be crucial in this clash to give their forwards a roll-on and test out any lazy markers.
Stats That Matter
– New Zealand are a perfect 5-0 ATS with a 4-1 under record while Brisbane are 1-4 ATS with a 3-2 under number.
– The Warriors have won the last two meetings and five of the last eight clashes with the Broncos.
– New Zealand have won 13 of the last 16 meetings at Mt Smart against Brisbane.
– Five of the last seven matches have tallied 40 points or fewer.
– The Warriors have covered their last three and seven of their last 10 at Mt Smart.
– As a favourite at the ground, the Warriors have covered four of their last five though they are 10-15 ATS since 2015.
– The Warriors are a perfect 7-0 with a 6-1 under record at Mt Smart after winning three straight.
– New Zealand have covered just two of their last 11 as a favourite of 4 or more at Mt Smart.
– Brisbane are 9-4 ATS getting a start of 4 or more since 2015 while they are 14-8 ATS as an underdog.
– As an underdog away from Suncorp, Brisbane have covered 11 of their last 17 while off a loss on the road they are 11-4 ATS.
The Wolf is expecting the Broncos to come out all guns blazing in the first half, but The Warriors don’t look like falling into old habits and should be too strong over the 80 minutes. They have a great record against the Broncos at Mt Smart, winning 13 of the past 16 meetings. Happy to take the Broncos with the +5.5 start, but the Warriors in head to head betting. The Brisbane/New Zealand HT/NT double looks a great value bet around the $7.50 quote.
How It’s Shaping Up
New Zealand by 2