|Match Preview||Recommended Bets|
|Sydney Roosters v South Sydney Rabbitohs
Thursday, April 12, 7:50pm (AEST)
Allianz Stadium, Sydney
|Best: Under 36.5 ($1.88)
Value: Sydney 1-12 ($3)
First Tryscorer: Boyd Cordner
The Roosters bounced back from their 30-6 loss to the high-flying Warriors in Round 4, with a comprehensive 28-10 win over the Sharks last week. Meanwhile, the Rabbitohs left their run too late against the Dragons last week, and the scoreline probably flattered them in the end as they scored two late tries. They will miss enforcer Sam Burgess through suspension for a consecutive week and it’s a massive out for this huge clash against their longest and most bitter rival.
The Sydney Roosters have opened the season 3-2 and enter this off a 28-10 win at Shark Park over Cronulla. The Roosters rank fifth in attack and sixth in scoring and sit fifth on the ladder. Souths have fallen to 10th on the table with a 2-3 record following a close loss to St George Illawarra at Kogarah. Souths rank eighth in scoring and ninth in defence. Souths have not conceded more than 18 points in any of their last four.
Luke Keary v Cody Walker: Luke Keary has made a scintillating start this season, with seven try-assists and two tries already under his belt. He’ll be looking for a strong performance against his former club as he pushes his claims for the No.6 sky blue jersey of NSW. It was a mixed bag for Cody Walker in last week’s loss to the Dragons. He scored a try of his own and set up another, but made two crucial errors as the Rabbitohs made a late charge in the match. Despite that, he’s been one of the best for the Rabbitohs this season and will put in another strong performance on Thursday night.
Stats That Matter
– The Sydney Roosters are 3-2 ATS with a 3-2 under record while South Sydney are 4-1 ATS with a 4-1 under number.
– The Roosters and Rabbitohs have the longest rivalry in Rugby League having met 216 times with Souths winning 112, the Roosters 99 and five draws.
– The Roosters have won the last three meetings and three of the last four at Allianz.
– Four of the last five meetings have failed to break 30 points.
– The Roosters are 23-18 ATS at Allianz since 2015 while the Rabbitohs are 1-6 ATS.
– As a favourite of more than a converted try at the ground, the under is 16-7 over the same time.
– The under is 8-3 when the Roosters are home favourites at Allianz after conceding 10 or fewer.
– The Rabbitohs have covered 11 of their last 18 away from ANZ.
– Souths have covered 6 of their last 9 away from ANZ as an underdog of 8 or more with the under 9-5 ATS dating back to 2015.
– Night road underdogs who conceded 16 or fewer cover at just 42% since 2008 with a 55% under record.
The Wolf is sticking with the unders as his best bet here. Four of the last five meetings have failed to break 30 points, while the Rabbitohs managed to limit the best attacking side (Dragons) to 16 points last week. The Rabbitohs have also not conceded more than 18 points in any of their last four. The Roosters have too much class across the park for a Rabbitohs side missing Sam Burgess, and have won the last three meetings between the side. Unders and Roosters 1-12 the way to go here.
How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney by 6