NRL Preview Round 18: Sea Eagles v Storm

NRL Betting
NRL Preview NRL Tips
Manly Sea Eagles v Melbourne Storm
Saturday, July 14, 5:30pm
Lottoland, Sydney
Best: Melbourne 1-12 ($3)
Value: Melbourne 1-12 & Over 40.5 ($6.50)
First Tryscorer: Suliasi Vunivalu ($9)

The Sea Eagles will still be on a high after their upset win over the Panthers back in Round 16 and have had a fortnight to prepare for the Storm after last week’s bye. They’ll be sweating on Daly Cherry-Evans and the Trbojevic brothers getting through Origin 3 and backing up here. The Storm have named their five Origin stars (Billy Slater, Will Chambers, Josh Addo-Carr, Cameron Munster, Felise Kaufusi and Tim Glasby) to back up here, while Jesse Bromwich returns from injury. Jahrome Hughes was sensational against the Dragons last week and has been named in the No.7 jersey ahead of the likes of Ryley Jacks and Brodie Croft.

Recent Form
Manly are down to 13th on the ladder with just five wins for the year. They defeated Penrith before the bye but had dropped four straight previous. The Sea Eagles rank eighth in scoring but are the 14th ranked defensive team. Melbourne are up to third on the ladder after an insane 52-30 win over the Dragons. The Storm have now won five straight. Melbourne rank third in scoring and second in defence.

Stats That Matter
– Manly are 7-9 ATS with a 9-7 under record while Melbourne are 8-8 ATS with a 9-7 under number.
– Manly defeated Melbourne 24-4 at AAMI Park earlier in the season but the Storm have dropped just four of the last 12 against the Sea Eagles.
– Six of the last eight matches have topped 41 points.
– The Storm have won 3 of the last 4 at Brookvale.
– Five of the last eight matches have been decided by a single score.
– Manly have covered just 7 of their last 17 at Brookvale Oval.
– Manly have covered four straight as a home underdog.
– The under is 12-4 when the Sea Eagles are at Brookvale off a win.
– The Storm are 28-22 ATS with a 31-19 under record away from AAMI Park with a 20-15 ATS with a 21-14 under record as a favourite.
– As a road favourite of 6.5 or more, the Storm are 7-8 ATS with an 8-7 over record.
– The Storm are 12-7 ATS with a 12-7 under record on the road after scoring 30 while they are 2-4 ATS with a 5-1 under record off conceding 24-plus.
– Road teams who scored 50 the start prior are 18-24 ATS with a 25-17 over record with road favourites 5-13 ATS.

NRL Betting Stats
Final Thoughts
The outcome of this clash will be decided by the impact that State Of Origin 3 has players backing up here. The Wolf will assume that everyone will back up at the time of the preview and is leaning towards the Storm. The Storm have won 3 of the last 4 at Brookvale, while the Sea Eagles have covered four straight as a home underdog. Storm 1-12 is The Wolf’s recommended play here.

How It Shapes Up
Melbourne by 4

Recommended Bets
Best: Melbourne 1-12 ($3)
Value: Melbourne 1-12 & Over 40.5 ($6.50)
First Tryscorer: Suliasi Vunivalu ($9)