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|Newcastle Knights v Parramatta Eels
Friday, July 13, 7:55pm
McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
|Best: Under 40.5 ($1.91)
Value: Parramatta 1-12 ($3.10)
First Tryscorer: Brad Takairangi
The Knights will welcome back Mitchell Pearce for this clash against the Eels, and ironically their last win this season was against the Eels by 30-4 in Round 13. Unfortunately, Kalyn Ponga is still a couple of weeks away due to a hamstring injury in a major blow to the Knights chances here. The Eels were extremely unlucky to go down to the high-flying Dragons back in Round 16, and it was definitely a match that they threw away after dominating for the majority of the contest. Michael Jennings played for Wentworthville during the bye week, and Brad Arthur decided that he played well enough to receive a recall to the top squad after some indifferent form.
Newcastle are 12th on the ladder with a 6-10 record. They rank 12th in scoring and are the worst defensive team in the NRL conceding 26.8ppg. The Knights have won just 1 of their last 8 – a Round 13 win against the Eels. Parramatta are last on the ladder with a 3-13 record. The Eels have won just 1 of their last 8 and have conceded 18 or more in 8 of their last 9. They rank last in scoring and 13th in defence.
Stats That Matter
– Newcastle are 7-9 ATS with a 9-7 over record while Parramatta are an NRL-worst 5-11 ATS with a 10-6 under record, going under in 6 of their last 7.
– Newcastle have won 9 of the last 11 against the Eels, including a 30-4 win at ANZ earlier this year.
– The last three and 7 of the last 11 have failed to top 39 points.
– The Eels have won their last two matches in Newcastle.
– The Knights have won just 1 of 6 at home and are 21-23 ATS since 2015 (25-19 under).
– The Knights are 6-2 ATS with a 4-4 total record as a home underdog of less than a try.
– The Knights are 7-3 under as a home underdog at night (4-6 ATS).
– The Eels have failed to cover their last seven as a favourite while the under has hit in 13 of 14 when the Eels are favoured in betting.
– The under is 6-2 when the Eels are road favourites.
– Parramatta have covered 5 of their last 7 on the road at night.
– Parramatta are 12-8 ATS on the road after conceding 20 or fewer.
It’s hard to back either of these struggling sides with much confidence, making the unders the best play here. Attack won’t be a feature of the match, with the Eels ranked last in scoring, while the Knights rank 12th in scoring, and have lost their best attacking weapon in Ponga. The head-to-head stats don’t lie either. The last three and 7 of the last 11 between the sides have failed to top 39 points. Unders!
How It Shapes Up
Parramatta by 4