NRL Preview Round 18: Bulldogs v Rabbitohs

NRL Betting
NRL Preview NRL Tips
Canterbury Bulldogs v South Sydney Rabbitohs
Saturday, July 14, 3pm
ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Best: Canterbury +10.5 ($1.91)
Value: HT/NT Double – Canterbury/South Sydney ($8)
First Tryscorer: Josh Morris ($19)

It doesn’t get more heartbreaking than the Bulldogs loss to the Raiders last week. Dean Pay’s men led by 14 points with six minutes on the clock, before the Raiders ran over the top of them to record an unlikely win. The Wolf will be very interested to see if they bring any mental scars into this clash against the Rabbitohs.  South have named their Origin stars (Dane Gagai, Damien Cook and Angus Crichton) to back up here, while Hymel Hunt replaces the injured Greg Inglis.

Recent Form
Canterbury are 15th on the ladder with a 4-10 record but have found some form of late, defeating Newcastle 36-16 before leading the Raiders by 14 with six minutes to play only to suffer a brutal defeat. The Bulldogs rank 13th in scoring and 11th in defence. They have posted their two best attacking performances over the last two weeks. Souths lead the NRL with a 12-4 record. They are the top attacking team in the NRL while they rank fourth in defence. Souths have won eight straight and have scored 20 or more in 10 of their last 11.

Stats That Matter
– Canterbury are 8-8 ATS with a 9-7 under record.
– They have gone over in three straight and covered 6 of their last 8.
– South Sydney are an NRL-best 11-5 ATS with a 9-7 under record.
– Souths have won the last two and 8 of the last 12 against Canterbury.
– Seven of the last 10 meetings have failed to top 38 points.
– Home underdogs of 8 or more are 81-48 ATS since 2008 with home underdogs of 8 or more off scoring 24-plus are 20-6 ATS.
– The Bulldogs are 13-8 ATS as an underdog at ANZ while they are 10-3 ATS at ANZ as an underdog of 4.5 or more (9-4 under) and 8-0 ATS (5-3 under) when an underdog of more than a converted try at the ground.
– The Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS at ANZ after conceding 30 or more.
– Souths have covered 12 of their last 15 at ANZ.
– As a double digit favourite at ANZ, the Bunnies are 5-2 ATS while they are 8-3 ATS when favoured by more than a converted try.
– Favourites of 6.5 or more on a six-game win streak are 10-22 ATS since 2008.

NRL Betting Stats
Final Thoughts
The Bulldogs were the better side against the Raiders last week, and should have left Belmore with the two competition points. The Wolf is hoping they can put it behind them and put up a decent fight against the competition-leading Rabbitohs. The Bunnies will be fresh off last week’s bye, but could be slow out of the blocks here and will have three Origin players backing up. Souths will be too good for the Dogs, but The Wolf thinks that the 10.5 line could be a hurdle too big to cover.

How It Shapes Up
South Sydney by 6

Recommended Bets
Best: Canterbury +10.5 ($1.91)
Value: HT/NT Double – Canterbury/South Sydney ($8)
First Tryscorer: Josh Morris ($19)