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|Parramatta Eels v South Sydney Rabbitohs
Thursday, June 14, 7:50pm
ANZ Stadium, Sydney
|Best: South Sydney 1-12 ($3)
Value: 1st Tryscorer & Match Winner – Robert Jennings & South Sydney ($11)
The Eels finally had something to smile about last week, defeating the Cowboys 20-14 and breaking a five-match losing streak in the process. Jarryd Hayne made a successful return from injury, scoring a double in the six-point win. The Rabbitohs won ugly over the Titans last week, but did it without their Origin stars. Greg Inglis, Dane Gagai, Damien Cook and Angus Crichton have all been named to return here.
Parramatta remain last on the ladder despite a win over the Cowboys in Darwin, one of their most impressive victories of the season. The Eels ended a five-game losing streak with the win. Parramatta rank last in scoring and 12th in defence. South Sydney have won six straight and are up to third on the ladder with a 10-4 record. Souths rank second in scoring while they are the sixth best defensive team. Souths have won their last two without their four Origin stars.
Nathan Brown v Sam Burgess. Nathan Brown has been sorely missed by the Eels for a big chunk of the season, but reminded everyone what he is capable of with an impressive 80-minute performance against the Cowboys in Darwin last week. He is the best forward in the Eels pack by a country mile and will be looking for a strong performance against his former club. Sam Burgess has produced back-to-back 80-minute performances to help his side through this Origin period and will be crucial a member of this Rabbitohs pack as they look to replicate their 2014 success. The Wolf can’t wait for this match-up between two of the most aggressive players in the game.
Stats That Matter
– Parramatta are 4-10 ATS with a 9-5 under record with five straight unders.
– South Sydney are 10-4 ATS with an 8-6 under number.
– Parramatta have won three straight against South Sydney.
– Four of the last five meetings have been decided by a converted try or less.
– The last four meetings and eight of the last nine have all topped 38 points.
– Home underdogs of 8 or more off a win are 18-4 ATS since 2011 with home underdogs of 8 or more cover at 63%.
– The Eels are 16-16 ATS at ANZ since 2015 with a 22-10 under record.
– As an underdog at the ground the Eels are 8-4 ATS while they have covered both games getting a start of more than a converted try.
– The under is 16-6 in Eels night games at ANZ.
– Parramatta have covered 9 of their last 15 on a five-day backup.
– Souths have covered 7 of their last 8 at ANZ.
– Souths have covered 6 of their last 8 as a favourite of more than a converted try at ANZ.
– The under is 11-5 when the Bunnies are favoured off scoring 18 or fewer.
It’s hard to go past the Rabbitohs on the back of their six-match winning streak, especially with their four Origin stars returning to the side. The Eels will take confidence out of the win over the Cowboys and should be able to keep the contest closer than most expect. Home underdogs of 8 or more off a win are 18-4 ATS since 2011. Keen to play the Bunnies 1-12 in this one.
How It Shapes Up
South Sydney by 6