NRL Preview Round 11: Titans v Knights

NRL Betting
Match Preview Recommended Bets
Gold Coast Titans v Newcastle Knights
Saturday, May 19, 3pm (AEST)
Cbus Super Stadium
Best: Newcastle ($1.91)
Value: Newcastle 1-12 ($3.40)
First Tryscorer: Mitchell Barnett ($21)

Both the Titans and Knights were very gallant in their respective Round 10 losses and will be looking to return to the winner’s circle on the Gold Coast on Saturday afternoon. It would pay to keep an eye on late team news for the Titans as both Kevin Proctor and Keegan Hipgrave have been named despite picking up significant injuries in the loss to the Storm last week, while Jai Arrow and Nathan Peats have been listed to return from injury.

The Gold Coast have tumbled all the way down to 15th on the ladder following five straight losses. The Titans are conceding 26.7ppg and have the worst defence in the NRL while they rank 12th in attack. Gold Coast have averaged just 13.4ppg in their last five. Newcastle are 10th on the ladder with a 5-5 record. They have the second worst defence in the NRL while they rank 10th in scoring. The Knights enter this off two straight double digit losses. The Knights 4-0 against teams outside the Top 8 this year including road wins at Canberra and Manly.

Key Matchup
AJ Brimson v Connor Watson: It doesn’t get much tougher than making your NRL debut against the Melbourne Storm, but AJ Brimson proved he could be a player of the future with a steady performance last week. He has played most of his football this season at fullback in the Queensland Cup for Tweed Heads, but is a strong ball runner, who should be suited by the No.6 jersey and will only be better with a NRL match under his belt. Connor Watson was sensational and awful in a mixed performance against the Panthers last week. He scored a try and made two line-breaks, but also had a hand in two bombed tries which killed any hope the Knights had of winning the contest. He’ll be looking to make amends this week and should get plenty of chances against the struggling Titans.

Stats That Matter
– Gold Coast are 5-5 ATS with a 6-4 over record while Newcastle are 5-5 ATS with a 6-4 over record with the over hitting in four of their last five.
– Gold Coast have won three of their last four against Newcastle and have won the last two on the Gold Coast.
– Three of the last four meetings have topped 42 points.
– Gold Coast have covered just 6 of their last 18 at Skilled.
– Since 2015, the Titans are 15-10 ATS with a 15-10 over record as an underdog while they over is 6-2 when the Titans are a home underdog in day games.
– The Titans are 13-18 ATS after conceding 28 or more.
– The over is 16-10 when an underdog is riding a five-game losing streak.
– Newcastle are 17-25 ATS away from Hunter Stadium since 2015 including a 0-3 ATS record as a favourite.
– The Knights have covered 7 of their last 11 road afternoon games.
– The over is 48-32 when interstate favourites conceded 28 or more last start.

NRL Betting Stats

Final Thoughts
The Wolf is leaning to the Knights in this one with plenty of uncertainty around how the Titans will line up in their forward pack, while the Knights have a superstar in Kalyn Ponga and he’ll prove the difference here in a close one.

How It’s Shaping Up
Newcastle by 2

Recommended Bets
Best: Newcastle ($1.91)
Value: Newcastle 1-12 ($3.40)
First Tryscorer: Mitchell Barnett ($21)