Canterbury Bulldogs v Sydney Roosters
Sunday, May 21, 4pm (AEST), ANZ Stadium, Sydney
|Best Bet: Canterbury +6.5 ($1.91)
Other: Canterbury/Sydney ($7.50)
The Bulldogs will be looking to bounce back after last week’s disappointing loss to the Thurston-less Cowboys, while the Roosters will be high on confidence after putting up a cricket score over the Eels.
The Sydney Roosters have won 7 of their last 10 against Canterbury including a 28-24 win in Round 2 this year. Both Daniel Tupou and Josh Morris crossed for doubles in the Round 2 clash. The Roosters have scored 20-plus in seven straight against the Bulldogs with the last five clashes all topping 44 points.
Canterbury were appalling in their 30-14 home loss to North Queensland, who were without talisman Johnathan Thurston. The Bulldogs have won 4 of their last 6 and sit inside the Top 8 with a 5-5 record but have the worst attack in the NRL scoring just 15.2ppg. Canterbury’s defence is down to sixth. The Sydney Roosters are up to third on the ladder after a dam-busting 48-10 win over Parramatta. The Roosters have now won three of their last four and scored over 20 points for just the second time since Round 2 against the Eels. The Roosters have the second best defence in the NRL and have not conceded more than 14 points in their last four.
Matt Frawley v Luke Keary. It will be Frawley’s second week in the starting side due to Josh Reynolds’ extended absence and he’ll be looking to build on his effort against the Cowboys where he set up a try, made a line-break and busted through four tackles. Keary was back to his best in the demolition of the Eels, setting up four tries to make it 12 try-assists for the season. He has formed an outstanding combination with Mitchell Pearce in the halves, which has allowed Keary to play his natural game and let Pearce lead the side around.
Stats That Matter
Canterbury are 6-4 ATS with an 8-2 under record while the Sydney Roosters are 5-5 ATS with a 7-3 under number. The Sydney Roosters have won 7 of their last 10 against Canterbury including a 28-24 win in Round 2 this year. The Roosters have scored 20-plus in seven straight against the Bulldogs with the last five clashes all topping 44 points. Since 2008 teams who score 44-plus the week prior cover at just 45% while road favourites of 6 or bigger cover at just 40%. The Roosters have covered just 5 of their last 12 as a road favourite of 6.5 or more. The Bulldogs have covered 4 of their last 5 at ANZ getting a start of more than a converted try.
The Wolf is really looking forward to this clash and is expecting the Bulldogs to come out all guns blazing. Unfortunately the Bulldogs halves pairing of Frawley and Mbye is still a work in progress, and the Roosters have a clear advantage here with Keary and Pearce. Look for Pearce to have a big match as he looks for a NSW recall after a troubled 2016. The Bulldogs/Roosters HT/NT double looks great value at $7.50.
How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney by 4
Canterbury +6.5 ($1.91)
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Odds as of Wednesday, May 17, 2pm