NRL Stats Watch: The Run Home

NRL

NRL Stats Watch: The Run Home

With the premiership set to hit the run home, here are 10 betting angles to look for over the final weeks of the year.

  • Home Favourites fall from a 51% cover rate to 47% over the final seven rounds of the year.
  • Home Underdogs +4 or bigger cover at a rate of 59%
  • Home Underdogs +8 or bigger cover at a rate of 68% with an over rate of 64% (v 58% and 45%)
  • Day Matches with a Home Underdog go over in 61% of matches v 52% for the first part of the season
  • Night Matches with a Home Underdog go over in 56% of matches v 42% for the first 20 rounds
  • Away Teams the scored 20+ last start cover at 55% v 45% rest of the year
  • Away Teams that conceded 20+ last start cover at 46% v 54% rest of the year
  • Small Home Favourites (0.5-6) see the under increase from 49% to 55%.
  • Huge Home Favourites (16+) see the over increase from 44% to 59%.
  • Home Underdogs see the over rise from 45% to 57%.

 

NRL betting odds database

 

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