NRL Preview: Titans v Warriors


NRL Preview
Gold Coast Titans v New Zealand Warriors

Sunday, August 7, 2pm (AEST), CBus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Best Bet: Over 44.5 ($1.90)
Other: Either Side Under 6.5 ($2.85)
Konrad Hurrell First Try ($11.00)

Jarryd Hayne is back and it will remarkably be this weekend with the Gold Coast Titans as they hope to stay inside the Top 8 in an all-important clash with the New Zealand Warriors.

Selection Notes
The big news is the return of Jarryd Hayne. It is unclear where Neil Henry will play him but the most likely scenario is he will start off the bench. Nathan Peats returns at hooker. Tyrone Roberts is likely to miss with a PCL injury so Cameron Cullen may start at five-eighth. New Zealand welcome back Bunty Afoa and Nathaniel Roache to the bench with Jazz Tevaga dropped.

Round 21 Team of the Week

New Zealand have won 12 of 19 against the Gold Coast including 10 of the last 11 dating back to 2011. The teams met in Round 17 where the Warriors won 27-18 at Mt Smart. The Warriors have won five straight on the Gold Coast with four of those wins by more than eight. New Zealand have posted 22-plus in 11 straight against the Titans.  Eight straight matches have topped 40 points. The Titans have former Warriors Konrad Hurrell and Agnatius Paasi on the books while Warrior Bodene Thompson is a former Titans player.

NRL betting odds database

Gold Coast are up to seventh on the ladder with a 9-9-1 record following their outstanding draw with Cronulla. Their +17 differential is seventh while they rank seventh in attack and ninth in defence. They haven’t lost in their last three. New Zealand are eighth on the ladder with a 9-10 record and a -17 differential, eighth in the league. They rank eighth in attack and 12th in defence. Five of the last six Warriors games have been decided by four points or less while they have posted more than 22 just once in that run.

Round 22 NRL Odds

Key Matchup
Ashley Taylor v Shaun Johnson. The raps just continue to come for Taylor, who has been exceptional since settling into the top grade. His poise and coolness have been central to the Titans’ success this year. Having another weapon like Jarryd Hayne will be nothing but helpful. Johnson was the match-winner against Penrith last week but gee he took a long time to wind up.

Stats That Matter
Gold Coast are an NRL-best 14-5 ATS while they are 11-8 over. New Zealand are 9-10 ATS with an 11-8 over record. The Warriors have gone under in 5 of their last 6 while the Titans have covered four straight and 8 of their last 10. Over in day games the last seven rounds since 2011 hit at 59%. Road dogs up to six off a win are 33-22 ATS since 2011 at the backend of the year. The Titans have failed to cover their last three day matches while the Warriors have covered 4 of their last 5. New Zealand are 12-7 under in their last 19 day matches as an underdog. The Warriors have covered just 3 of their last 10 as a road outsider. The Titans have covered their last three when favoured at home by 4 points or more.

In-Play Stat
Gold Coast are 6-0 when leading at halftime this year. New Zealand have played in a record five golden point games this year including three straight.

Behind The Curtains

Final Thoughts
This game has plenty to it with a finals berth on the line and Jarryd Hayne returning to the NRL in what was an astonishing announcement on Wednesday. The Titans deserve favouritism here but they are not overly reliable with expectations on them and it is unclear what role Hayne will play. The safest bet in the match is to take the over, which is always an excellent play in day matches at this time of year and these two have a long history of running up big scores.

How It’s Shaping Up
Gold Coast by 2

Best Bet
Over 44.5 ($1.90)

Best Exotic
Either Side Under 6.5 ($2.85)

Best First/Last Tryscorer
Konrad Hurrell ($11.00)

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