Gold Coast Titans v Parramatta Eels
Saturday, July 23, 5.30pm (AEST), CBus Stadium, Gold Coast
|Best Bet: Under 43.5 ($1.90)
Other: Gold Coast 1-12 ($3.00)
Anthony Don First Try ($9.00)
Gold Coast have become the fairytale team of the NRL this season and can further enhance their chances of a finals finish against a Parramatta team who have incredibly found themselves more trouble.
The Titans have lost Greg Bird to suspension with Nathaniel Peteru joining the 17. The Eels welcome back Brad Takairangi with Michael Jennings dropping out of the squad through injury.
Gold Coast and Parramatta have played 14 times with the Titans winning nine to the Eels’ five. The Titans had won 5 of 6 before the teams met in Round 14 when the Eels shocked the Gold Coast 22-12 in a dour affair in Darwin. Eight of the last 10 matches between the sides have topped 40 points. The Titans have won 5 of 7 all-time at Robina but none of the last four matches at the ground have been decided by more than 10 points. Anthony Don has scored six tries in five games against the Eels. Titan Nathan Peats is a former Eel who joined the club midway through this season.
Gold Coast are seventh on the ladder with an 8-9 record and a -3 differential. The Titans rate eighth in attack and eighth in defence. Gold Coast have won just 2 of their last 5 games while they enter this off conceding 12 points or less for just the fourth time this season. Parramatta are down to 14th on the ladder despite a 10-7 record. They have won 4 of their last 6 and have dropped two on the trot just once this year. They enter this off conceding 20-plus for just the fourth time this season.
Ash Taylor v Jeff Robson. Taylor has emerged as the most outstanding rookie of the 2016 class, helping an unfancied Titans team to the cusp of the finals on the back of a calm head and nice touch. Robson is a journeyman veteran who is back at the Eels and has plenty of pressure on him as the club’s top playmaker. He needs a big showing.
Stats That Matter
Gold Coast are an NRL-best 12-5 ATS this year with a 10-7 over record while Parramatta are 10-7 ATS with a 12-5 under number. The Titans are 23-21 ATS at home since 2013 and have covered 8 of the last 11 at their home ground with the under 24-20. As a home favourite though the Titans are just 7-11 ATS with an 11-7 under number. They are 2-0 ATS when favoured at home after scoring 30. The Eels are a poor 6-11 ATS interstate since 2013 with a 12-5 over record. The Eels have covered 4 of their last 6 as a road team off a loss. Home teams off a win of 20 or more are 49-35 ATS since 2013 with a 51-33 under record.
Gold Coast are a perfect 5-0 when leading at halftime. Parramatta have overcome two of five halftime deficits.
The Titans are typically a favourite of The Wolf but as a big favourite at home there are few angles to support the bet. The best play in this one is the under. The Eels are 12-5 under this year – the top under team in the NRL – while the Titans are a strong under team at home. Home teams of a win of 20-plus go under in 61% of games since 2013.
How It’s Shaping Up
Gold Coast by 6
Under 43.5 ($1.90)
Gold Coast 1-12 ($3.00)
Best First/Last Tryscorer
Anthony Don ($9.00)
Other Recommended Bets