NRL Preview: Sea Eagles v Warriors

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NRL Preview
Manly Sea Eagles v New Zealand Warriors

Saturday, July 16, 5.30pm (AEST), NIB Stadium, Perth
Best Bet: Over 40.5 ($1.90)
Other: New Zealand ($1.80)
New Zealand/Over 40.5 ($3.30)

Struggling Manly take their home clash against New Zealand to Perth and will have to take their form from a fortnight ago against the Dragons west to compete with a Warriors team already inside the Top 8 and looking to build some momentum over the fun home.

Selection Notes
Manly have lost Dylan Walker and Brayden Williame meaning Matt Wright and Lewis Brown play in the centres while Brad Parker debuts on the wing. Blake Leary and Siosaia Vave are back no an extended bench. New Zealand have Manu Vatuvei back with Tui Lolohea astonishingly dropped to the bench again. Ryan Hoffman starts in the backrow. Manly have only Nate Myles playing State Of Origin this week – and he has not been named for Manly – while the Warriors have just Jacob Lillyman.

Origin Period Stats

History
Manly have won 20 of 28 all-time against New Zealand including the 2011 Grand Final and a shock 34-18 win at Mt Smart in Round 6 this year. The Sea Eagles have totally dominated the Warriors in recent years in fact with 10 wins in the last 11 matches dating back to 2010. The Warriors have scored more than 22 points just once since 2008 against Manly. The Sea Eagles have scored 22-plus in 7 of their last 8 against the Warriors. Manly won 24-22 in their only clash with the Warriors in Perth. Shaun Johnson has scored in 4 of his last 6 against Manly.

NRL betting odds database

Form
Manly are 13th on the ladder with a 5-11 record and a -69 differential, 12th in the NRL. The Sea Eagles rank 13th in attack and 11th in defence. They ended a seven-game losing streak against St George Illawarra, a 36-6 win at Brookvale. Manly have conceded 30-plus in 6 of their last 8. New Zealand are up to seventh on the ladder with a -16 differential, eighth in the premiership. The Warriors rank seventh in attack but are a lowly 12th in defence. The Warriors have won 4 of their last 5, conceding 19 or less in all five of those matches.

Round 19 NRL Odds

Key Matchup
Daly Cherry-Evans v Shaun Johnson. Cherry-Evans has provided an assist in his last two games but most importantly his running game is coming back with two of his last five games topping 100 metres. The Sea Eagles are at their best when Cherry-Evans is probing. Johnson is one of the game’s genuine superstars and has been running with force in his last three, topping 90 metres in each with four line breaks across the three games. The questionable Manly defence will have a hard time containing the electric No.7.

Stats That Matter
Manly are 7-9 ATS this year with an 8-8 total record, going over in 4 of their last 5. New Zealand are also 7-9 ATS with a 10-6 over record, though they have gone under in three straight. Manly are 1-2 straight and ATS this year and have gone over in 6 of their last 7 interstate matches. The Warriors have covered 4 of their last 6 in Australia, going over in five of them. New Zealand have covered 5 of their last 6 as a favourite in Australia. The under is 34-18 since 2013 when an outsider won by 25-plus the week prior. The Warriors are just 9-15 ATS since 2013 after scoring 25 points with a 14-10 under record. Manly are 4-9 ATS after conceding single digits. The last four games at the ground have gone over the total. The under drops from 53% to 47% during the Origin period and is 15-27 this year. Favourites during the Origin period cover 55% of matches compared to 47% during the rest of the regular season and this season are 22-20 ATS.

In-Play Stat
Manly are 3-1 when leading at halftime this year while New Zealand are 4-1.

Behind The Curtains

Final Thoughts
Manly have dominated New Zealand for many years but with the Sea Eagles in all sorts of trouble, the Warriors are the bet here and seem a pretty delicious price to boot. The top play though is the over with the Sea Eagles a big recent over team, the Warriors a big over team this year and NIB Stadium on a four-game over run. Interstate both these teams skew over. Expect plenty of points.

How It’s Shaping Up
New Zealand by 8

Best Bet
Over 40.5 ($1.90)

Best Exotic
New Zealand/Over 40.5 ($3.30)

Best First/Last Tryscorer
Shaun Johnson ($14.00)

Other Recommended Bets
New Zealand ($1.80)

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