NRL Preview: Sea Eagles v Raiders


NRL Preview
Manly Sea Eagles v Canberra Raiders

Saturday, August 27, 3pm (AEST), Brookvale Oval, Sydney
Best Bet: Over 41.5 ($1.90)
Other: Over 9 Tries ($3.00)
Jordan Rapana First Try ($10.00)

Canberra’s surprising push for a Top 2 position continues at Brookvale Oval on Sunday when Manly host the Raiders on Saturday afternoon. The Manly faithful won’t be given a chance to farewell club legend Jamie Lyon whose career is over following a hamstring injury.

Selection Notes
Jamie Lyon is set to miss out on a home farewell for Manly but the Sea Eagles have Dylan Walker and Api Koroisau back. Winger Brad Parker is out. Canberra welcome back Edrick Lee in place of four-try hero Brenko Lee while Josh Hodgson is back at hooker and Paul Vaughan at prop for Junior Paulo. 

Manly hold a 30-19-1 all-time edge over Canberra dating back to 1982. The Sea Eagles have won 6 of the last 8 against the Raiders but Canberra won convincingly 30-18 when the teams met in Round 13. The Sea Eagles have won four straight at Brookvale with the Raiders last winning at the ground in 2010. The last five between the two teams have topped 45 points.

NRL betting odds database

Manly are 12th on the ladder with an 8-14 record though their -65 differential rates 11th. The Sea Eagles have dropped their last three and have scored more than 20 just once in their last six. Since Round 11 Manly rank 8th in defence and 11th in attack. Canberra are up to second on the ladder with a 15-6-1 record and a +176 differential that ranks third. Since Round 11 Canberra have the top attack scoring 30.3ppg and the third best defence conceding 16.8ppg. Canberra have won eight straight and have conceded fewer than 18 points in their last four.

Round 25 NRL Odds

Key Matchup
Tom Trbojevic v Jack Wighton. Trbojevic has had an exceptional season for Manly, letting down nobody who envisaged a big career ahead. The fact he has pushed through injury to continue playing is testament to his commitment. Wighton started the season off in shocking form to lead the NRL in errors but he has tightened his game remarkably and it has seen the Raiders shoot to legitimate title contention.

Stats That Matter
Manly are 11-11 ATS with a 12-10 under number while Canberra are 13-9 ATS with a 14-8 over record. The Sea Eagles have covered 6 of their last 8 while the Raiders have covered 9 of their last 12 and gone over in 10 of their last 12. Since 2011 over the last seven rounds of the year, the over hits in 56% of day matches (8-5 under this season) while home underdogs of at least 6.5 are 35-20 ATS and home underdogs of at least 8.5 are 21-14 ATS (with a 21-14 under record). Since 2013 home underdogs of 8.5 or more are 30-27 ATS while those off a loss are 21-25 ATS. The over is 13-5 with a road favourite of 8.5 or more off a win of 10 or less. Canberra are 14-8 over in road day matches while Manly are 8-6 over in home day matches. Since 2008, day matches where the home team conceded 38 or more the week prior are 31-18 over.

In-Play Stat
The Raiders have lost just 5 of 22 20-minute periods after halftime. Manly are 2-11 when trailing at the break.

Behind The Curtains

Final Thoughts
The Wolf couldn’t be more keen on the over in this one. All the angles are pushing for a big total here with Canberra are strong over team, the over a big play when a home teams was defensively poor last start and day matches at this time of year going strong over. Stylistically it is hard not to see the Raiders’ potent right edge tearing up the Sea Eagles poor edge defence.

How It’s Shaping Up
Canberra by 8

Best Bet
Over 41.5 ($1.90)

Best Exotic
Over 9 Tries ($3.00)

Best First/Last Tryscorer
Jordan Rapana ($10.00)

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