NRL Preview: Roosters v Sharks


NRL Preview
Sydney Roosters v Cronulla Sharks

Monday, July 18, 7pm (AEST), Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Best Bet: Cronulla -6 ($1.90) 
Other: Cronulla 13+ ($2.75)
Luke Lewis ($21.00)

The Sydney Roosters’ attempts to kick-start their season will not get any easier when they tackle a red-hot Cronulla team chasing history after 13 straight wins.

Selection Notes
The Sydney Roosters have recalled Ryan Matterson with Jackson Hastings dropped. Blake Ferguson and Aidan Guerra will backup from Origin duty. Cronulla have Paul Gallen, Andrew Fifita, Wade Graham, Jack Bird and James Maloney playing Origin meaning the Newtown contingent that played last week all go back to NSW Cup.

Origin Period Stats

The Sydney Roosters hold a 56-31-2 all-time advantage over Cronulla but have dropped the last three and have won just 3 of the last 11 meetings dating back to 2010. Cronulla won at the SFS last year 20-12 before a 10-4 win at Shark Park. The last six at Allianz have been split evenly. James Maloney is a former Rooster. Luke Lewis has scored in his last two games against the Roosters.

NRL betting odds database

The Sydney Roosters are anchored in 15th on the ladder with just three wins all season. Their -114 differential ranks 14th while they rate 14th in both attack and defence. They have lost four straight and six of their last seven. Against Top 6 teams they are 0-5 with three double digit losses. Cronulla sit on top of the ladder with a 14-2 record. They have won an incredible 13 on end, a club record, and have won their last two by double digits. They have the top attack in the NRL while they rank third defensively.

Round 19 NRL Odds

Key Matchup
Mitchell Pearce v James Maloney. The premiership winning halves pairing square off for the first time since Maloney left for The Shire and it is the new Shark that has the upper hand having been the key addition that has Cronulla firing. Pearce got much of the credit for the Roosters’ dominance in recent years but it now seems Maloney was the key figure.

Stats That Matter
The Sydney Roosters  are 8-8 ATS this year with a 10-6 over record. while Cronulla are 10-6 ATS with a 9-7 under record. Cronulla have covered just 2 of their last 7 laying a start of 6 or more while as a road favourite this year they are 3-2 ATS with a 4-1 over record. The Sydney Roosters are 2-1 ATS with a 2-1 over record this year getting a start at home of 4.5 or more while they are 3-5 ATS with a 6-2 over record as a home underdog overall. Since 2013 the Roosters are 8-5 ATS on Mondays while the Sharks are 7-7 ATS. Road favourites off a double digit win cover just 46% of matches since 2013. Home teams who scored 18 points and lost last week are 52-73 ATS since ’13. The under drops from 53% to 47% during the Origin period and is 15-27 this year. Favourites during the Origin period cover 55% of matches compared to 47% during the rest of the regular season and this season are 22-20 ATS.

In-Play Stat
Cronulla have lost the final 20 minutes of a match just three times this year. The Roosters are just 3-3 when leading at halftime in 2016.

Behind The Curtains

Final Thoughts
It is surprising Cronulla are as long as they are considering the state of the Roosters at present and the form of the Sharks. Home teams who post points and lose the week prior are typically terrible bets. Favourites are also very much the way to play at this time of year. Stick with the Sharks.

How It’s Shaping Up
Cronulla by 13

Best Bet
Cronulla -6 ($1.90)

Best Exotic
Cronulla 13+ ($2.75)

Best First/Last Tryscorer
Luke Lewis ($21.00)

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