NRL Preview: Roosters v Broncos


NRL Preview
Sydney Roosters v Brisbane Broncos

Thursday, July 28, 8pm (AEST), Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Best Bet: Sydney Roosters +3.5 ($1.90) 
Other: Sydney Roosters ($2.25)
Sydney Roosters 1-12 ($3.95)

The Sydney Roosters and Brisbane Broncos are in terrible ruts and will look to get themselves out of their respective slumps this Thursday. The Roosters season is all but over while the Broncos are trying to keep themselves in Top 4 contention.

Selection Notes
The Sydney Roosters have lost Jared Waerea-Hargreaves with Dale Copley coming into the centres and Mitch Aubusson shifting to the backrow. Brisbane have lost Sam Thaiday and Josh McGuire to suspension with Matt Gillett and Herman Ese’ese replacing the Maroons duo. Alex Glenn will move back to the backrow with Tom Opacic in the centres.

Round 20 Team of the Week

Brisbane have won 25 of 41 all-time matches against the Sydney Roosters though the last 10 have been split evenly dating back to 2009. The teams met three times last year with the Broncos winning both Suncorp appointments including a 31-12 elimination finals win while the Roosters ground out a 12-10 win in the SFS meeting. The Roosters have won 2 of the 3 meetings at the SFS since 2010. Seven of the last 11 meetings have topped 40 points. Ben Hunt has scored 5 tries in his last 4 games against the Chooks.

NRL betting odds database

The Sydney Roosters sit 15th on the ladder with a poor 3-15 record. Their -142 differential ranks 14th in the NRL while they have the 14th ranked attack and defence. The Roosters have now dropped six straight since defeating the Tigers in Round 13 with four of those losses coming against Top 5 teams. Over that run they have not scored more than 20. Brisbane have hardly been any better themselves despite holding sixth spot on the ladder with a 10-8 record and the fifth best differential. Brisbane have won just 2 of their last 8 and since Round 11 have had the 11th ranked attack and 14th rated defence.

Round 21 NRL Odds

Key Matchup
Mitchell Pearce v Ben Hunt. Pearce has been solid in his return from injury but hasn’t really got his backline firing at full clip. His one assist from his last three games is a poor return and with a young halves partner he needs to be more dominant. Hunt leads the NRL in assists this year but he also has just one in his last three as his form has taken a terrible dive south. He needs to arrest his slide and soon.

Stats That Matter
The Sydney Roosters are 8-10 ATS with an 11-7 over record while Brisbane are also 8-10 ATS with a 9-9 total number. Night matches with a home underdog go over in 56% of matches in the last seven rounds since 2011 while away teams that conceded 20-plus the week prior cover at just 46%. Small home underdogs off a loss of 10 or more R20-26 are 12-7 ATS since 2008 while small road favourites off a double digit loss over that run home are 2-6 ATS and small road favourites off a loss over that run are 4-11 ATS with a 9-6 over record. Small home underdogs who enter a match off 2 or more losses R20-26 are 6-2 ATS. The Roosters are a poor 1-3 ATS as a small home favourite this year with all four matches going over the total. Brisbane have covered just 2 of their last 6 as a road favourite but are 14-6 under as a road elect since 2013. Road favourites who conceded 30-plus the week prior are 17-12 ATS with an 18-11 under record.

In-Play Stat
Neither the Roosters or the Broncos have come back from a halftime deficit.

Behind The Curtains

Final Thoughts
The Roosters look an outstanding bet in this one against an underperforming Broncos team who have had two of their most effective forwards rubbed out through suspension. The Chooks have failed to get the job done all year but have looked close to a win and since Round 11 have been better in both attack and defence than the Broncos. With small home underdogs a good bet at this time of year, particularly off a couple of losses or a double digit loss, the Roosters seem set to end their losing streak on Thursday.

How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney Roosters by 8

Best Bet
Sydney Roosters +3.5 ($1.90)

Best Exotic
Sydney Roosters 1-12 ($3.95)

Best First/Last Tryscorer
Boyd Cordner ($21.00)

Other Recommended Bets
Sydney Roosters ($2.25)