NRL Preview: Rabbitohs v Raiders



NRL Preview
South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canberra Raiders

Sunday, July 31, 2pm (AEST), ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Best Bet: Over 46.5 ($1.90)
Other: South Sydney +8.5 ($1.90)
Either Side Under 6.5 Points ($2.75)

The Rabbitohs and Raiders are two teams heading in very different directions with Souths plummeting from premiers two seasons back to a bottom four side while Canberra are looking for their first Top 4 finish in 13 years.

Selection Notes
Michael Maguire has dropped Joe Burgess, replacing him with Michael Oldfield. Zane Musgrove, Jack Gosiewski and Damien Cook have been added to an extended bench. Bryson Goodwin is in doubt with a shoulder injury. Canberra are unchanged.

Round 20 Team of the Week

Canberra have won 29 of 50 all-time meetings with South Sydney though the Bunnies have won 6 of the last 8 meets. The teams met just once last year – in Cairns – with Canberra successful 30-22. The teams have met eight times at ANZ with four wins apiece and the Raiders winning the last match at the ground 30-18 in 2014. High-scoring matches have been the way when these teams play with 10 of the last 11 matches topping 48 points and one team posting 30 in seven straight. Bryson Goodwin has scored 8 tries in 10 games against the Raiders.

NRL betting odds database

South Sydney are down to 13th on the ladder with their -90 differential fourth worst in the NRL. The Rabbitohs have fallen to 12th in attack while defensively they rate 13th. The Rabbitohs have dropped seven straight and have posted more than 14 just once in their last six games. Since Round 13 the Bunnies have had the worst attack and the third worst defence. Canberra have had the second best attack and sixth rated defence since Round 13 and have risen to fourth on the ladder with an 11-6-1 record. Their +86 differential is also fourth. Canberra have won four straight and seven of their last eight and have posted sub-26 just once since Round 10.

Round 21 NRL Odds

Key Matchup
Cody Walker v Jack Wighton. Walker has been the only Rabbitohs back to show anything in attack. He has an error in his game but he has pace, skill and some creative flair. Wighton leads the NRL in handling errors but has been vastly improved of late. His running could cause the Souths middle all kinds of grief.

Stats That Matter
South Sydney are 5-13 ATS this year with a 10-8 over record while Canberra are 10-8 ATS with an 11-7 over record. The Raiders have gone over in 7 of their last 8 while they have covered 6 of their last 8. Souths have covered just 1 of their last 7 while they have gone under in three straight. Since 2011 day matches have gone 92-54 over R20-26. Home underdogs of 6.5 or more since 2011 R20-26 are 45-30 ATS. Souths are 1-5 ATS getting 8 or more points since 2013 while they are 0-1 ATS as a home underdog getting the same start. Home underdogs of 8 or more off a single digit loss are 12-5 ATS since 2011 while home underdogs of 4-plus off a close loss are 8-3 ATS over the same time R20-26 with a 7-4 over. The over is 11-6 R20-26 with a home underdog of more than 4 in day games. Souths are 18-27 ATS at ANZ since 2013 including a 5-5 ATS number in day matches. The Raiders are 13-8 over in day road matches while they are 1-3 ATS when favoured by more than 4 points away.

In-Play Stat
South Sydney are 1-13 when trailing at halftime while the Raiders have overcome three of eight halftime deficits.

Behind The Curtains

Final Thoughts
We are set for a festival of points on Sunday with all angles pointing to an overs bet in the Raiders-Rabbitohs clash. These two have a long history of high-scoring games with 10 of the last 11 topping 48 points while day matches at this time of year go over at a clip of 59%. The Raiders can score, the Rabbitohs can’t defend, Canberra road matches are over bets, late season day matches with home underdogs go over. Souths also look like a bet here. Big home underdogs are great plays at this time of year and Canberra are big road favourites are highly unreliable.

How It’s Shaping Up
Canberra by 2

Best Bet
Over 46.5 ($1.90)

Best Exotic
Either Side Under 6.5 Points ($2.75)

Best First/Last Tryscorer
Cody Walker ($13.00)

Other Recommended Bets
South Sydney +8.5 ($1.90)