South Sydney Rabbitohs v Manly Sea Eagles
Monday, July 25, 7pm (AEST), Allianz Stadium, Sydney
|Best Bet: Under 41.5 ($1.90)
Other: Manly ($1.70)
Under 42.5/Manly ($3.25)
Round 20 concludes with a battle between two teams well out of finals contention with South Sydney and Manly doing battle at the Bunnies’ old home ground of Allianz Stadium.
Souths welcome back Adam Reynolds while Bryson Goodwin also returns from a long-term injury. Ed Murphy drops out of the team. Nate Myles and Brayden William return for the Sea Eagles with Brad Parker going back to NSW Cup.
Souths and Manly have met on 137 occasions with the Bunnies winning 63 and the Sea Eagles 74. Souths have had the best of it lately though with four wins in the last five outings including a 40-24 finals victory in 2014 and a 16-12 win at Brookvale in Round 5. Souths have won the only two matches played at the SFS between the sides over the last decade. Low-scoring matches have been the norm with the last eight regular season matches between the sides not topping 38. Alex Johnston has scored four tries in four games against Manly.
Souths are 13th on the ladder with a 5-12 record and a -82 differential, 12th in the NRL. They rank 11th in attack and 13th in defence and have dropped six straight matches. The Rabbitohs have conceded 28-plus in five of their last six matches across that losing streak while they have dropped their last three against teams outside the Top 8. Manly are up to 12th on the ladder with a 6-11 record and a -68 differential. The Sea Eagles rank 11th in defence and 13th in attack. They have won their last two, conceding an average of just 10 points in those two performances.
Sam Burgess v Jake Trbojevic. Burgess continues to do the work with his numbers ever-impressive but he has seemed off his game of late with his handling particularly concerning. With Souths having such a vanilla pack, more is required from their star. The same can’t be said of young Jake Trbojevic, who has been simply outstanding this year. There is no better tackler in the game with his scything defence something to behold.
Stats That Matter
South Sydney are an NRL-worst 5-12 ATS with a 10-7 over record while Manly are 8-9 ATS with a 9-8 under number. Manly have covered three straight while Souths have covered just one of their last six. Night matches with a home underdog go over at a clip of 61% v 42% for the first 19 rounds. Souths have covered just 2 of their last 12 as an underdog. Home underdogs who scored 10 points or fewer the week prior are 39-28 ATS since 2013. Manly have covered just 2 of their last 10 as a road favourite. The under is 43-30 since 2013 when a road favourite scored 15 points or fewer, while at night the under is 28-15.
South Sydney are 4-0 when leading at halftime this year while Manly are 4-1.
The Monday under has served us well and again looks a delicious bet to round out Week 20. The big angle here is the under at night when road favourites score 15 or less the week prior, which salutes at close to 67%. Both these teams possess vanilla attacks, which suits. Manly are also a bet here. South Sydney are going awful and a resurgent Sea Eagles should be too strong.
How It’s Shaping Up
Manly by 6
Under 41.5 ($1.90)
Under 41.5/Manly ($3.40)
Best First/Last Tryscorer
Tom Trbojevic ($9.00)
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