Penrith Panthers v Wests Tigers
Friday, August 19, 8pm (AEST), Penrith Stadium, Sydney
|Best Bet: Under 39.5 ($1.90)
Other: Penrith/Under 39.5 ($2.50)
Tyrone Peachey ($15.00)
The bottom of the Top 8 is wide open and the Panthers and Tigers both have their sights set on September football. Penrith are inside looking out and will be keen to put the sword to one of the challengers.
Penrith are unchanged but the Tigers have lost James Tedesco with Jordan Rankin shifting to fullback and Josh Addo-Carr coming onto the wing. Luke Brooks is back at halfback with Jack Littlejohn dropping out of the team.
Penrith and the Wests Tigers have met 28 times with the Panthers winning 16 and the Tigers 12. The Tigers have had the best of it since 2010 with 9 of the last 11 including a 34-26 victory at ANZ in Round 17. The teams last played at Penrith in 2013 with the Tigers winning 20-18. Wests have won three straight at the ground but trail 8-5 all-time there. Four of the last six matches have topped 44 points. Kevin Naiqama, Tim Grant and Elijah Taylor are all former Panthers. David Nofoaluma has scored 3 tries in 3 games against Penrith.
Penrith have ascended to seventh on the ladder with an 11-10 record and the seventh best differential. They rank eighth in attack and 10th in defence. Penrith have won two straight and 4 of their last 5. The Tigers are 10th on the ladder with a 10-11 record and their -48 differential ranks 10th. The Tigers have won 7 of their last 11 but enter this off a 1-point loss to the Titans. Wests are 3-3 in their last six against Top 8 opposition. Since Round 11 the Tigers rank 6th in defence while Penrith rank 12th while in attack the Tigers rate 5th against the 8th placed Panthers.
Bryce Cartwright v Mitchell Moses. Two high upside/high downside five-eighths, Cartwright and Moses hold the key to this one. Cartwright can destroy poor opposition defensive lines and the Tigers are a poor defensive unit who will get worse without James Tedesco’s organisation. Moses can punch holes in the middle and Penrith give up a lot of metres though the centre. Should be a good battle.
Stats That Matter
Penrith are 9-12 ATS with an 11-10 under record while the Tigers are 11-10 ATS with an 11-10 under record. Penrith have covered just 2 of their last 8 while the Tigers have covered 5 of their last 6 and gone under in four straight. Penrith have covered just 1 of their last 4 when favoured by more than a converted try at home. The Tigers have covered their last three road games getting a double digit start (winning two off the stick). Road double digit outsiders off a close loss are 8-16 ATS since 2013. Double digit road outsiders who conceded less than 20 points the start prior are 23-33 ATS. The under is 42-19 when a home team scored 35 points since 2013 while they are 37-26 ATS. The Tigers have covered six straight and 10 of their last 12 night matches while Penrith are 28-20 under at night since 2013.
Penrith have comeback from 4 of 11 halftime deficits this year while the Tigers are 0-7 when behind at the break.
On face value the line in this one looks a little too big and would rather be with the plus on the Tigers’ recent form than the minus. The loss of James Tedesco is monumental though so staying away from side betting. The top play in the match is without question the under. The under hits at nearly 67% when a home team scored 35-plus since 2013, the Tigers have been an under team of late and Penrith are typically under at night.
How It’s Shaping Up
Penrith by 7
Under 39.5 ($1.90)
Penrith/Under 39.5 ($2.50)
Best First/Last Tryscorer
Tyrone Peachey ($15.00)
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