Penrith Panthers v Manly Sea Eagles
Sunday, September 4, 6.30pm (AEST), Penrith Stadium, Sydney
|Best Bet: Penrith -10.5 ($1.90)
Other: Penrith -19.5 ($1.90)
Josh Mansour First Try ($10.00)
Penrith could potentially jump into sixth spot but the final regular season match is unlikely to have any significant bearing on the NRL finals makeup.
Penrith have replaced the injured Reagan Campbell-Gillard with Jeremy Latimore. Manly have dumped Brad Parker and Frank Winterstein with Dylan Walker and Blake Leary returning.
Manly have won 50 of the 82 meetings against Penrith with the Panthers winning 31. The Panthers have definitely had the best of it lately though with five wins in the last six matches with Manly’s only win over that run being by a single point. Four of Penrith’s wins have been by 10 or more. The Panthers have won 3 of the last 4 in Penrith with none of the last three at the ground topping 34 points. Penrith won 31-24 after Penrith led 24-4 in Round 16. Josh Mansour has scored five tries in five games against Manly.
Penrith are seventh on the ladder with a 13-10 record and a +70 differential. The Panthers have won four straight and have not conceded more than 20 points in their last seven. The Panthers have scored 30 in 4 of the last 6. Manly have dropped four on the trot and have conceded 38 and 44 in their last two. They are 12th on the ladder with an 8-15 record. Since Round 11 Penrith rank second in attack and seventh in defence while Manly rank 11th and 9th respectively.
Matt Moylan v Tom Trbojevic. Moylan received his share of criticism throughout the Origin series but there is no doubting his impact as a club player where he has been outstanding. He comes into this off a match-winning performance against the Titans where he slotted the winning field goal. Trbojevic also enters this in hot form after scoring a hat-trick against Canberra. He is injured but showing plenty of courage to play on with nothing but pride on the line.
Stats That Matter
Penrith have 11-12 ATS with a 12-11 under record while Manly are 11-12 ATS with a 12-11 under record also. The Panthers have covered four straight while Manly have covered just 1 of their last 4. Penrith have covered and gone over their last two at home when favoured by more than a converted try. Big home favourites who conceded 14 or fewer last start are 41-35 ATS since 2014. Big home favourites who have covered four straight are 13-6 ATS. Manly are 3-2 ATS getting double digits on the road this year.
Penrith have lost the 20 minutes after halftime just six times this season from 23 games. Manly are 6-2 when leading at the break.
Penrith will likely have nothing to play for but it is hard to see them being contained by a weak defensive side like Manly. The Panthers have firepower across the paddock while Manly are highly vulnerable on the fringes. Big home favourites off four straight covers are 13-6 ATS since 2008.
How It’s Shaping Up
Penrith by 20
Penrith -10.5 ($1.90)
Penrith -19.5 ($1.90)
Best First/Last Tryscorer
Josh Mansour ($10.00)
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