NRL Preview: Panthers v Eels



NRL Preview
Penrith Panthers v Parramatta Eels

Sunday, July 17, 4pm (AEST), Penrith Stadium, Sydney
Best Bet: Over 41.5 ($1.90) 
Other: Parramatta +3.5 ($1.90)
Parramatta +3.5/Over 41.5 ($3.60)

Parramatta have finally been deducted their 12 competition points and have been besieged by yet another controversy but will take no greater pleasure than heaping more pressure on rivals Penrith by dishing them up a loss as the Panthers fight for a Top 8 berth.

Selection Notes
Anthony Griffin has named Matt Moylan, Josh Manour and Tyrone Peachey to return but they are just added to the same 17 who played last week making the likely lineup muddled. Parramatta have lost Semi Radradra with Michael Jennings back in his place. Brad Takairangi also returns seeing Kenny Edwards go back to the bench. Moylan, Mansour and Jennings are the Origin reps named for this game.

Origin Period Stats

Parramatta have won 55 of the 92 games against Penrith dating back to 1967 and the Eels have won 3 of the last 5. The teams met earlier this year with Penrith winning on the bell in Round 5. The Eels have won the last two and three of the last four at Penrith. Seven of the last eight matches between the teams at Penrith have topped 44 points. Michael Gordon and Michael Jennings are both former Penrith stars. Bryce Cartwright has scored three tries against Parramatta, his highest tally against any team.

NRL betting odds database

Penrith have fallen to 10th on the ladder with a 7-9 record while their -36 differential is also 10th in the NRL. The Panthers rank 10th in attack with 20.2ppg and 10th in defence conceding 22.6ppg. The Panthers have dropped their last two and four of their last six, conceding at least 24 points in all those matches. Parramatta have been dumped to 14th on the ladder but have a 10-6 record and a top four defence. Defensively they rank 12th. The Eels have won 4 of their last 5 and are 6-2 against teams outside the Top 8 this year.

Round 19 NRL Odds

Key Matchup
Bryce Cartwright v Corey Norman. Two exceptionally talented players, both have faced their challenges of late. Cartwright was astonishingly snubbed by Origin selectors and comes off his worst performance of the year against Cronulla. Norman had a pearler against the Eels but has found himself in all manner of controversy this week. The player that reacts best to adversity here will be the difference.

Stats That Matter
Penrith are 6-10 ATS this year with an 8-8 total record while Parramatta are 9-7 ATS with an 11-5 under record. The Eels have gone over in three straight while the Panthers have covered just 1 of their last 6. The over has hit in 5 of the last 7 Penrith home games while the Panthers have covered just 1 of their last 6 at home. The Eels have covered just 1 of their last 4 road games. The Panthers are 2-4 ATS off two straight losses at home. The Eels have gone over in their last four off scoring 22 points. The under drops from 53% to 47% during the Origin period and is 15-27 this year. Favourites during the Origin period cover 55% of matches compared to 47% during the rest of the regular season and this season are 22-20 ATS.

In-Play Stat
Penrith have come back from 33% of halftime deficits while Parramatta have recovered from 40%.

Behind The Curtains

Final Thoughts
The numbers in this one suggest Newcastle are a sneaky chance of covering here and Melbourne can be complacent against poorer teams but it would take a game punter to jump on board. The best bet is the over. Even though the total is high the over has a huge salute rate when a road team is favoured by 16.5 or more, hitting at a rate of 90%.

How It’s Shaping Up
Parramatta by 1

Best Bet
Over 41.5 ($1.90)

Best Exotic
Parramatta +3.5/Over 41.5 ($3.60)

Best First/Last Tryscorer
Clint Gutherson ($11.00)

Other Recommended Bets
Parramatta +3.5 ($1.90)