NRL Preview: Knights v Rabbitohs


NRL Preview
Newcastle Knights v South Sydney Rabbitohs
Sunday, August 28, 4pm (AEST), Hunter Stadium, Newcastle
Best Bet: South Sydney -13.5 ($1.90)
Other: Over 44.5 ($1.90)
South Sydney -13.5/Over 44.5 ($3.60)

Souths will look to continue their late-season run of form with a road clash against the Knights on old boys day in Newcastle.

Selection Notes
There are more mass changes at Newcastle with Nathan Ross, Danny Levi, Will Pearsall and Mickey Paea all out. Jarrod Mullen, Pat Mata’utia, Sione Mata’utia and Cory Denniss come into the side. South Sydney are unchanged.  

Newcastle have won 25 of 38 against South Sydney but the Rabbitohs have won six straight since Michael Maguire arrived at Redfern with the last three wins coming by a combined score of 150-22. This is the first meeting at Newcastle since 2012 when the Bunnies won 18-6. Newcastle hold a 16-3 all-time advantage at Hunter Stadium. Alex Johnston has seven tries in three games against the Knights.

NRL betting odds database

Not much more can be said about Newcastle who have just a win and a draw all year and have put together a -471 differential on the worst attack and defence of the NRL era. The Knights have conceded at least 26 points in 8 of their last 9. They have not won since Round 9 and have lost their last five by an average of 24.4 points. South Sydney have won their last two but are locked in 13th with a 7-15 record and a -116 differential, third worst in the NRL. Over the last three weeks the Bunnies beat the Sharks at home, lost to the Storm by a point away and hammered the Warriors at Mt Smart. Souths have scored 14 or less in 6 of their last 7.

Round 25 NRL Odds

Key Matchup
Jake Mamo v Greg Inglis. Mamo is only a fair player but the Knights have almost no speed or ability to score out wide so he carries a heavy burden. Inglis is starting to show some of his old form and will be after a big finish to the year.

Stats That Matter
Newcastle are 8-14 ATS with an 11-11 total record while South Sydney are 8-14 ATS with a 12-10 over number. Souths have covered three straight while the Knights have covered just 1 of their last 5. Newcastle have gone under in 5 of their last 6. South Sydney are 2-1 with Damien Cook as the starting hooker this year with that loss a one-point defeat to Melbourne. Home underdogs of 6.5 or more in the final seven rounds of the year are 35-20 ATS with a 32-23 over number while double digit home underdogs are 16-11 ATS with a 17-10 over record. Road favourites off three straight covers are 20-13 ATS since 2013

In-Play Stat
Newcastle have led after 20 minutes just three times this year. South Sydney are 6-1 when leading at the break.

Behind The Curtains

Final Thoughts
It may be old boys’ day at Newcastle but with South Sydney finding their feet with Damien Cook at hooker this could get ugly. The Bunnies have whacked the Knights by 40-plus in three straight and those scars are hard to overcome.  Souths and the over seem very good bets.

How It’s Shaping Up
South Sydney by 24

Best Bet
South Sydney -13.5 ($1.90)

Best Exotic
South Sydney -13.5/Over 44.5 ($3.60)

Best First/Last Tryscorer
Alex Johnston ($10.00)

Other Recommended Bets
Over 44.5 ($1.90)