Newcastle Knights v Canterbury Bulldogs
Saturday, August 6, 3pm (AEST), Hunter Stadium, Newcastle
|Best Bet: Newcastle +16.5 ($1.90)
Other: Newcastle +12.5 ($2.24)
Over 42.5 ($1.90)
Canterbury will be looking to get their Top 4 hopes back on track against a Newcastle team that ranks as one of the worst historically.
Newcastle have Jarrod Mullen, Pat Mata’utia and Sam Mataora back with Jack Cogger and Josh King out. Tony Williams returns for Canterbury with the injured Greg Eastwood out. Raymond Faitala-Mariner will start.
Newcastle are the worst team in the premiership with just a win and a draw to go with a -401 differential. The Knights have the clear worst attack and defence this year. They have dropped 13 straight and are 0-9-1 against Top 8 teams with four covers. Canterbury are fifth on the ladder with a +76 differential. They rank sixth in attack and fifth in defence. The Bulldogs have won 5 of their last 6 but enter this off a dreadful performance against the Dragons. Canterbury are 9-0 against bottom eight teams this year (excluding Parramatta) but are 4-5 ATS against them.
Trent Hodkinson v Moses Mbye. Hodkinson was moved on for Mbye this season and it is hard to argue with the long-term value of the decision but there have been question marks over Mbye’s awful kicking game this year. The Knights have struggled no end but Hodkinson has certainly done his bit. This should be a battle with a little edge to it.
Stats That Matter
Newcastle are 7-12 ATS with an 11-8 over record while Canterbury are 8-11 ATS with a 10-9 over record. Home underdogs getting 6.5 or more in the last seven rounds of the year are 46-32 ATS since 2011 while those getting 10 or more are 13-7 ATS with a 15-5 over number. The Knights have covered 4 of 6 at home this year Home underdogs of more than a converted try off a small loss are 11-6 ATS. Since 2011, home underdogs of 6.5 or more are 32-36 ATS off a double digit loss since ’11 while the over hits at 16-9 in the last seven rounds of the year with a home underdog of 6.5 or more off a double digit loss. Since 2011 double digit road favourites off a win are 14-17 ATS with the over 20-11. Canterbury have covered just 2 of their last 12 when favoured away from ANZ.
Newcastle have led after 20 minutes just twice this year while Canterbury are a poor 9-4 when leading at halftime.
The line in this match is just plain wrong. Newcastle have been reliable cover bets at home getting a big start. Canterbury are ordinary road favourites and are in ordinary form. With such great angles for the Knights as a big home underdog here, they can be bet with the huge line with plenty of confidence.
How It’s Shaping Up
Canterbury by 18
Newcastle +16.5 ($1.90)
Newcastle +12.5 ($2.24)
Best First/Last Tryscorer
Nathan Ross ($14.00)
Other Recommended Bets
Over 42.5 ($1.90)