NRL Preview: Eels v Roosters


NRL Preview
Parramatta Eels v Sydney Roosters

Friday, July 8, 8pm (AEST), Parramatta Stadium, Sydney
Best Bet: Over 35.5 ($1.90)
Other: Over 35.5/Sydney Roosters +2.5 ($3.60) 
Daniel Tupou First Try ($9.00)

Parramatta and the Sydney Roosters can all but kiss goodbye season 2016 but that won’t take away from a compelling matchup that both teams will be desperate to win. The Eels have been incredibly resilient this year while the Roosters continue to welcome back a host of stars.

Selection Notes
Parramatta have lost Michael Jennings to Origin duty with Brad Takairangi back from injury to replace him. Jeff Robson also makes his return to the club and Tim Mannah returns from injury with Cody Nelson dropped. The Sydney Roosters have Blake Ferguson and Aidan Guerra on Origin duty with Ryan Matterson, Chris Smith and Joseph Manu into the team. Boyd Cordner could make a comeback from injury.

Origin Period Stats

This will be the 129th clash between Parramatta and the Sydney Roosters with the Roosters holding just a 62-61 advantage with five draws dating back to 1947. The Roosters have had the best of it lately with seven wins in the last nine games dating back to 2009. The teams met just once last year with the Chooks winning 28-18 at the SFS. The Roosters have won 4 of the last 6 at Parramatta Stadium though the Eels won the last clash 14-12. These two have typically played high-scoring matches with 5 of the last 6 topping 46 points. Eels fullback Michael Gordon is heading to the Roosters next season.

NRL betting odds database

Parramatta remain fifth on the ladder with a 9-6 record and a +51 differential though they are expected to lose 12 points in the very near future. The Eels rank a poor 12th in attack averaging 19.1ppg but defensively they are third in the NRL conceding just 15.7ppg. The Eels won three straight before going down 34-24 to title front-runners Cronulla after leading 18-0. The Sydney Roosters are anchored in 15th with just three wins from 15 games.  They rank 14th in attack and defence with 17ppg scored and 24.3ppg conceded. The Roosters have dropped their last three with all their wins coming against teams from outside the Top 8.

Round 18 NRL Odds

Key Matchup
Corey Norman v Mitchell Pearce. The two key attacking weapons for either side, Norman and Pearce will determine this one. Norman has 12 assists this year including five in the last four games while Pearce set up two of the Roosters’ three tries in the loss to Canterbury. The half that controls this gets the two points for their team.

Stats That Matter
Parramatta are 8-7 ATS this year with an 11-4 under total record while the Sydney Roosters are 8-7 ATS with a 9-6 over number. Favourites off a double digit loss during the Origin period are 66-52 ATS since 2012 while the over is 46-33 when a favourite conceded 30 the start prior during this time of the season. The Eels are 24-17 ATS at Parramatta Stadium since 2012 but have covered just 2 of their last 8 at the ground. They have covered just 1 of their last 7 as a favourite at the ground. The Roosters are 34-23 over away since 2012 while they are 13-9 ATS with a 13-9 over record as a road underdog.  The Eels have covered just 3 of their last 11 as at night after scoring 24 points.  The under drops from 53% to 47% during the Origin period and is 13-25 this year. Favourites during the Origin period cover 55% of matches compared to 47% during the rest of the regular season and this season are 21-17 ATS. Wet games are 11-10 under during Origin period, down from 52-31 overall.

In-Play Stat
Parramatta have overcome 2 of 5 halftime deficits. The Sydney Roosters are a poor 3-3 when leading at the break.

Behind The Curtains

Final Thoughts
Heavy rains are forecast across Sydney this weekend but that shouldn’t stop punters from steaming into the over, which has again spiked during the Origin period. Rain has little impact on the total during Origin so with the total so low in this the over has to be bet. These two typically play high-scoring matches while the over is a bet when the favourite conceded 30 the last start. In terms of a side, the Roosters are value with the Eels being a terrible bet as a home favourite.

How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney Roosters by 1

Best Bet
Over 35.5 ($1.90)

Best Exotic
Over 35.5/Sydney Roosters +2.5 ($3.60)

Best First/Last Tryscorer
Daniel Tupou ($9.00)

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