NRL Preview: Broncos v Roosters

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NRL Preview
Brisbane Broncos v Sydney Roosters

Thursday, September 1, 8pm (AEST), Suncorp Stadium
Best Bet:  Brisbane -10.5 ($1.91)
Other: Over 41.5 ($1.90)
Brisbane 13+ ($2.10)

Brisbane can lock in at least fifth spot and potentially move to fourth with a win in Corey Parker’s final regular season game at Suncorp while the Roosters will be playing for nothing but pride.

Selection Notes
Brisbane go in unchanged after their dominant win in Melbourne last week. The Sydney Roosters have lost Boyd Cordner and Sio Sia Taukeiaho with Nat Butcher to debut off the bench and Mitchell Frei coming in. Ryan Matterson and Isaac Liu start.

History
Brisbane are 25-17 all-time against the Sydney Roosters but the last 10 have been split evenly between the sides. The teams met in Sydney just five weeks ago with the Roosters surprise 32-16 victors. Brisbane have won the last two at Suncorp though the teams are 3-3 at the ground since it reopened in 2003. Four of the last six matches have topped 40 points. Brisbane eliminated the Roosters from last year’s finals series and have won 4 of 5 finals between the teams. Ben Hunt has scored 5 tries in his last 5 games against the Roosters while Blake Ferguson has 7 tries in 7 games against the Broncos.

NRL betting odds database

Form
Brisbane really turned their form around with a 26-16 win in Melbourne last round. They are up to fifth on the ladder with a 14-9 record and a +110 differential, good enough for fifth. The Broncos have won four straight now including back-to-back wins against Top 6 teams, scoring 20-plus in their last three while conceding an average of 12.5 in their last four. The Sydney Roosters are 15th on the ladder with a 6-17 record and the third worst differential in the NRL. They are 1-10 on the road this year but have won 3 of their last 5. Their last three road games have resulted in losses of 16-plus and they enter this off a 37-12 loss to Cronulla.

Round 26 NRL Odds

Key Matchup
Darius Boyd v Blake Ferguson. Boyd has destroyed the Roosters in recent outings with his ball-playing confounding the Chooks no end. Even in defeat last game he was Brisbane’s best. Ferguson is a rocks and diamonds player but has a good record against Brisbane and will be looking to leave a forgettable season on a high.

Stats That Matter
Brisbane are 11-12 ATS with a 12-11 over record while the Sydney Roosters are 11-12 ATS with a 15-8 over number. The Broncos have covered three straight while the Roosters have gone over in 10 of their last 13. Away teams that conceded 20-plus in the last seven rounds of the year cover at just 46% compared to 54% for the first 19 rounds. Brisbane are 10-3 ATS at Suncorp when favoured by 10 or more since 2014 while they are 25-13 ATS at home with a 22-16 over record overall at the ground over that time. The Roosters have covered just 1 of their last 8 road games while they are 1-3 ATS this year getting more than a converted try on the road. Since 2013 interstate outsiders getting more than a converted try are 17-13 ATS off conceding 30 points. Brisbane are 16-8 under after scoring 30 points.

In-Play Stat
Neither team has come back from a halftime deficit this year.

Behind The Curtains

Final Thoughts
If Brisbane play anywhere near like they did against Melbourne they should be able to dispose of the Roosters with few problems. The Chooks are a different side on the road while the Broncos have an extraordinary cover record when favoured by double digits at home. With the Chooks 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games, Brisbane look the bet in what will be a high-scoring affair.

How It’s Shaping Up
Brisbane by 16

Best Bet
Brisbane -10.5 ($1.91)

Best Exotic
Brisbane 13+ ($2.10)

Best First/Last Tryscorer
Darius Boyd ($15.00)

Other Recommended Bets
Over 41.5 ($1.90)

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