NRL Preview: Broncos v Eels

NRL Preview
Brisbane Broncos v Parramatta Eels

Friday, August 12, 8pm (AEST), Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Best Bet: Under 41.5 ($1.90)
Other: Parramatta +12 ($1.90)
Both Teams To Score 12 Points – No ($2.37)

Brisbane collected the two points in Wollongong last Thursday but were a long way from impressive and will need to improve sharply against a gallant Parramatta team that refuses to back down.

Selection Notes
Brisbane are unchanged while Parramatta have lost Beau Scott and see David Gower replace him.

Brisbane and Parramatta have met on 50 occasions with the Broncos winning 30 and Parramatta 19 with a single draw. The teams met four times in the finals between 1998 and 2002 with the teams splitting them two apiece. The last six matches between the sides have been split evenly as well with the Broncos winning 17-4 in the season opener this year in a match that saw Parramatta play without their strongest halves pairing. Parramatta have won 3 of the last 5 at Suncorp with four of those matches topping 43 points. Seven of the last 11 matches though have failed to top 38. Anthony Milford has three tries in his last two games against the Eels.

NRL betting odds database

Brisbane are down to sixth on the ladder with their +68 differential also sixth. Though they rank fifth in attack and sixth in defence for the season, since Round 11 they are 14th in both attack and defence. They have won just 2 of their last 9. Parramatta are 13th on the ladder despite their 11-9 record. They rank 12th in attack but an impressive 4th in defence. Since Round 11 the Eels rank 10th in defence and 11th in attack. Parramatta ended a three-game losing streak at home to Manly last week.

Round 23 NRL Odds

Key Matchup
James Roberts v Michael Jennings. Two legitimate speedsters, Roberts and Jennings have the ability to bust a match wide open from anywhere on the park. With both teams having issues with their attack, some spark from an outside back will be key.

Stats That Matter
Brisbane are 8-12 ATS this year with a 10-10 total record while Parramatta are 11-9 ATS with a 14-6 under number. Since 2014 Brisbane are 24-12 ATS at Suncorp but have failed to cover their last four. Off a win they are 16-5 ATS including 4-1 ATS while they are 10-3 ATS as a double digit favourite at the ground. Since 2008 home double digit favourites off scoring 12 points or fewer are 27-32 ATS. The Eels have covered their last three as a double digit road outsider. Since 2008 the under is 16-8 when a double digit outsider conceded less than 10 points the week prior. The under is 21-14 ATS when a road team scored 12 points or less and won the week prior.

In-Play Stat
Brisbane are 0-7 when trailing at halftime this year while the Eels have comeback from 3 of 8 deficits at the break.

Behind The Curtains

Final Thoughts
It would take a very game bettor to steam into the Broncos laying two converted tries given their current form and their failure to cover again last week. The Eels are tough and with a fairly solid side can remain competitive in this one. The best play in the match though is clearly the under. The Eels are an under team and there are good under angles here with a road team who scored less than 12 and won and road double digit outsiders who conceded less than 10 points the start prior.

How It’s Shaping Up
Brisbane by 4

Best Bet
Under 41.5 ($1.90)

Best Exotic
Both Teams To Score 12 Points – No ($2.37)

Best First/Last Tryscorer
Bevan French ($10.00)

Other Recommended Bets
Parramatta +12 ($1.90)