NRL Grand Final Prop Sheet
The Wolf has analysed the NRL Grand Final and found his 10 best prop bets.
Melbourne HT/FT ($2.55)
Triple Margin III: Melbourne Win By Over 7.5 ($2.75)
Melbourne 1-12 ($4.50)
The Storm look like good things and there is plenty of value in playing some props around a victory. They are 18-1 when ahead at the break this year so the halftime/fulltime double excellent value. The Storm can dominate matches without blowing out teams so the 1-12 looks a bet. A nice saver on them to win by over 7.5 provides the opportunity for a nice middle with margins of 8-12.
Melbourne -1.5/Under 35.5 ($3.60)
Under 24.5 Points ($4.40)
Cronulla Under 12.5 Points ($2.50)
Points will very much be at a premium in this one with seven of the last eight Grand finals going under and the Storm 18-8 under this season and 14-5 under in finals since 2008. In the last 15 matches between the teams, 11 have failed to break 38. The Storm have conceded an average of just 9.33 points a game over their last three and are the top defensive side in the premiership. Points will be at an absolute premium in this one.
Most Offloads: Cronulla ($1.50)
Cronulla rank second in offloads this season with 12.8 per game. The Storm rank 10th with 9.6. The Sharks will rely on second phase play. The Storm will go with ball control.
Jersey of First Tryscorer: Any Other Number ($2.35)
This game is set to be played through the middle so look for the first try to be scored in the middle third of the paddock. Both sets of outside backs lack genuine speed so a half or forward scoring first looks a bet.
First Scoring Play: Melbourne Penalty ($4.20)
The Storm have taken a penalty goal first in each final. They meet the two biggest conceders of penalties in James Maloney and Michael Ennis. The Storm will take the two if anywhere within range.
Scorecast: Jesse Bromwich to Score a Try and Melbourne Win ($10.00)
Jesse Bromwich has scored a try in three of his last five against the Sharks. The Storm have identified Cronulla’s middle as their weakness and will send Bromwich to the line plenty when inside the Sharks 20.