Welterweight Title – Horn v Pacquiao

UFC betting odds

Welterweight Title Fight

Jeff Horn, an ex-schoolteacher from Brisbane has somehow landed a world title fight against one of the world’s greatest ever boxers in Filipino, Manny Pacquiao, at Suncorp on Sunday afternoon. Pacquiao needs no introduction given he’s won titles in 8 different weight divisions but the real question is, does Horn stand any chance of victory?  Well, according to the Wolf, the answer is a resounding no.  This fight is a complete mis-match that looks to have been setup as the first fight in Pacquiao’s “farewell tour”. A tour that probably sees him fighting all over the world, picking up fat pay-cheques & beating lower ranked opponents.  This is not a fight that the world wants to see, but nevertheless, the city of Brisbane will be glued to their televisions in the hope that the local boy can spring an unlikely surprise.

Onto the fighters and Pacquiao enters the fight as a 38-year old Senator that is definitely past his best but would probably still rank as the best welterweight in the world right now. His record stands at 59-6-2 (38 KOs) and he fought, and won convincingly, twice last year beating Timothy Bradley & Jessie Vargas – dropping both fighters. Horn’s camp will tell you that Manny is so far past his best that their man, a bigger and younger man, has the edge.  It’s simply not true. Almost everyone is bigger than Pacquiao, including Jessie Vargas last year – it didn’t help.  These days almost everyone is younger than Manny but that also didn’t help Vargas in November. Pacquiao taught him a lesson that day.

For Horn this fight is a no-lose situation.  Lose and, well, it’s Manny Pacquiao. Win, and you’ve pulled off a huge shock and set yourself up for some huge fights in the future.  His record stands at 16-0-1 (11 KO) but the key stat here is in the quality of his opposition.  Horn has never, probably will never again, fight someone of Pacquiao’s calibre.  They are on different levels, completely different levels and that gulf in class will show in the ring on Sunday.  Horn would beat Conor McGregor in the ring but he’d struggle against the likes of Vargas & Bradley and Pacquiao beat both of those.

We could look at strategy and key strengths and weaknesses but the simple fact of the matter is that the gulf in class is just too big. Horn is currently trading at around the $5 mark, he should be $50 in reality.

Best: Under 10.5 Rounds ($2.05)
Value: Pacquiao wins in Rounds 7-12 ($4.00)