Wolf’s Racing Guide – Tips 24/3/16

Horse Racing betting

Wolf’s Best
Moonee Valley Race 3 No.7 Stellar Collision – $5
Although Stellar Collision performed quite admirably last start when third behind Super Cash at listed level, not convinced he was ever truly comfortable racing up the straight. He seemed to get lost a bit when he loomed up and perhaps he’s also looking for further than the 1100m of that. Think he’ll be much better suited in this race back at the Valley where he won first up this prep at and he gets up to the six furlongs now which is another big tick. He’s two big dangers here appear to be Keen Array and Sooboog but personally think both are overrated – Keen Array was flattered in the Coolmore last prep and has now come back with two efforts that didn’t reflect his odds in the race, and Sooboog is catty plus 1200m is his max trip. Stellar Collision is still on the way up, he’ll park just off the speed and prove that he’s a group horse in the making.

 

Circuit Bets

Moonee Valley Race 4 No.4 Lazumba – $6.50
Lazumba has returned this prep in brilliant form and can see no reason she couldn’t continue in that vein by winning this. The daughter of Sebring showed flashes of ability last prep, but the break has obviously done her the world of good as she easily accounted for a bunch of maidens first up, then came to town on a Saturday in open fillies grade and was a convincing winner in good time. She goes to a mile now which will suit her now that she’s three runs in, she draws perfectly to possie up behind the speed, and her main danger here in impressive last start winner Thames Court has drawn very awkwardly in barrier 11 and may be forced to race wide or be used up early. Things appear to have fallen into place nicely for Lazumba to grab some black type.

Gosford Race 1 No.6 Top Of My List – $3.20
The raced brigade here do not excite me in this maiden, but that’s just part of the reason Top Of My List can win on debut. The Anthony Cummings prepared daughter of High Chaparral appeared in a trial at Randwick only 6 days ago and she signalled that she’s ready to go the track and win as she was under little pressure when working home nicely up the middle of the track and could have won the trial if allowed to do so. She looks, and is bred to be, a filly that’s going to get further as her career unfolds so expect her from that wide draw to probably race back in the small field here, but have little doubt she’s got more upside than any of her rivals and expect her to make it a winning start to her racing life.

Gosford Race 4 No.5 Bulla Baby – $6
You have to forgive Bulla Baby’s last start sixth behind Morello at Kembla, she just got way too far out of her ground in a race that was essentially fought out between a few that had nice runs behind the speed and the ride lacked a bit of initiative. She draws wide again here so they will no doubt go back again, but this filly will get ground, so there’s no reason to ride her quietly for so long into the race, if she’s getting dictated to they need to get on their bike and put her into it, there’s zero point staying out the back and running on nicely as she needs prizemoney if they have any aspirations towards a race like the Queensland Oaks. She’s shown enough already to suggest that she’s well and truly up to these, she just needs things to go her way and we’ll see the real Bulla Baby.

Orange Race 4 No.2 Undoubtable – $2.60
As he gets older, Undoubtable looks like he’s turning into a genuine staying type and finds himself in probably the weakest race he’s been in for quite some time. Two starts back, when only second up from a let up, he ran home strongly behind stablemate and rival here Two Ronnys. He now meets him 4.5kgs better for having been beaten less than two lengths, plus he’s had another run (he was just ok in much better company) which would have really topped him fitness wise for this. He will be peaking here and his best would be much too good for this lot, just doesn’t want any more rain between now and start time.

 

Wolf’s Bolter

Moonee Valley Race 6 No.12 Kinglike – $9
Sensational race this and you could certainly make a case for several of them. Love the way Kinglike appears to have come back, he trialled brilliantly before heading to Sydney for the Challenge Stakes where he may have just run out of condition late and English was able to sneak up on the inside and take the prize home. It was a great effort considering his inexperience racing in the clockwise direction and the fact it was only his second time against the older horses. He still does a few things wrong in his races, but the talent is real, and now that he gets back to Moonee Valley, where he’s won previously, gets up to the 1200m, which is the distance of both his wins, and draws a good alley, feel like we could see a career best from Kinglike and at the almost double figure quote he appeals big time.

 

Quaddie

Moonee Valley
2,7,9/1,2,9,10,12/1,2,3/2,4,5,6

Gosford
1,2,8,9/2,5,7,11,12/1,9,10,11/3,10

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