Wolf’s Racing Guide – Tips 20/1/16

Horse Racing betting

Wolf’s Best
Ipswich Race 4 No.5 Dansolei – $1.60
After missing out on a run at the Sunshine Coast on Saturday in a race she looked a huge chance in, Dansolei will now line up here in a much more inferior event. The daughter of Danzero was ridden too conservatively at her latest outing, when flashing home into 7th behind in form mare Glorious Red – yes it’s her normal pattern to get back, but there’s no need to be with the ambulance, and there was no way she was ever going to make that ground up. She only has to face eight rivals here, so traffic issues shouldn’t be a problem. If anything prefer them to not go too hard in front and she can just sit off them and use her powerful sprint to swoop home – hard to see her getting beat bar bad ride or bad luck.

 

Circuit Bets
Warwick Farm Race 1 No.3 High Spirit – $5.50
High Spirit has improved at his two career runs and if he can make a similar leap here he’ll be going close. The close relation to the topweight in this race, and likely favourite Lighthouse Keeper, just found one better in Old North last start at Randwick, after the winner had the suck run in behind and got the drop on him. He now goes into this at close to peak fitness, he draws nicely in gate 3, and he gets the services of Hugh Bowman to guide him home. Just don’t see how he isn’t in the finish of this.

Geelong Race 4 No.2 Honourable Tycoon – $5
If Honourable Tycoon had drawn a better alley than he has in this, he would have gone close to being best bet of the day, but alas he’ll have to start second from the outside so we’ll need a Craig Williams special to get him home, but there’s not much better to attempt that. The Mark Kavanagh trained gelding has his foot right on the till now after two quality placings behind talented sprinter Camdus, and this will now be his fifth run back this prep so he should be right at the top of his fitness levels. His main danger here is Shahqa, who’s only had the one start for a relatively good maiden win, but it’s a tough ask for him to back up into a class 1 against older horses and not get much, or any, weight relief.

Geelong Race 7 No.7 Pure Karma – $5.50
Pure Karma has always shown something – he won his first two starts and his two runs this prep have been solid efforts in races better than what he faces here, certainly last start at the very least when he got strung up in some traffic before working home well behind the impressive Harbour Grey. He goes up a touch further in trip now, draws to get a soft run, and is another to be ridden by Craig Williams, who may have learnt a bit about the son of Purrealist from that recent run when he rode him for the first time. Think he breaks through for his first win this campaign and perhaps he could look for a Saturday race shortly.

Ipswich Race 5 No.6 Terio Tool – $2.90
Terio Tool is coming out of two decent form races and should be ready to break through this prep here in a race that’s certainly no harder than those. He looks nicely in after Luke Dittman’s claim and he should be able to lead and dictate proceedings with not much speed around him. 1350m at Ipswich is about as suitable as it gets for a high cruiser like him – looks like he will be very hard to run down.

 

Wolf’s Bolter
Warwick Farm Race 5 No.5 I’ll Take The Jag – $12
An impressive winner on debut in town, things just didn’t pan out for I’ll Take The Jag at his final two runs of his first campaign. He’s looks to have come back in good order though judging by his nice first up effort behind the very promising Bullrush three weeks ago at Canterbury. He’s a horse that’s clearly going to get further than the seven furlongs he’s set to face in this, but he does have a bit of “X factor” about him and he may well have enough class to be very competitive over this sort of a trip at this stage of his prep.

 

Quaddie

Warwick Farm
1,3,4,6,10/2,5,8,9/1,4,5,6/4,8

Geelong
2,3,5,6/3,7,9/2,3,7/2,3,15,8

Discuss