Wolf’s Racing Guide – Tips 20/02/16

Horse Racing betting

Wolf’s Best
Rosehill Race 3, No.4 Beau Tirage
Beau Tirage should be winning this Highway event. This three-year-old is city-class without having to run in these country restricted races. Keith Dryden has a smart one here as evident by his close third to Mogador last start. He was never on the track either. What price Mogador if he lined up in this? He’d be deep, deep into the red. Resumes without an official trial but if he’s anywhere near right, he should be too good for this field.

Circuit Bets
Flemington Race 6, No.4 Palentino
This doesn’t look a vintage crop of Melbourne three-year-olds going around in the CS Hayes Stakes. Palentino has shown plenty in his four career starts and still has immeasurable upside, which can’t be said for many of the others. Should’ve won the Manfred first-up but had zero luck. His biggest danger looks to come from north – Sydneysider River Wild.

Rosehill Race 7, No.1 Press Statement
Very classy colt who won his races last preparation on raw talent. Tipping he’s furnished further now and expect big things this autumn. Seems as though Hugh Bowman expects the same as he passed up the Lightning Stakes ride on Terravista to stay in Sydney. Two trials and 1400m first-up suggested he is not going to the Hobartville for a gallop.

Flemington Race 8, No.1 Charmed Harmony
Such an underrated galloper, this six-year-old was in career-best form over the spring. Went around 12 times for six wins, with his fifth in the G1 Rupert Clarke perhaps the best run of the lot of them. Has won three from four fresh and resumes over 1400m here which (like Press Statement) suggests he’s done plenty of work. Will lead up again and be in the finish at each-way odds.

4,6 / 2,5 / 1,10,12,15 / 9

3,5,7 / 1,2,8,12 / 4,5,7,8 / 1,10,11.

Rosehill Race 6, No.3 Religify
Like the quick back-up and up in trip for this Waller-trained gelding. Resumed a winner but hasn’t tasted victory since. However, all of his runs have been full or merit. Was five weeks between runs last start and knocked up late. The other huge factor in his favour here is the map. There’s not a great deal of speed engaged and there’s every chance Tommy Berry will drop anchor out in front.

Feature Racing
Lightning Stakes (Flemington)
Chautauqua vs Exosphere. Which corner is The Wolf in? Read his Runner By Runner guide.

Vanity (Flemington)
How many of these are sharp enough to win over 1400m? Jameka is on an Oaks path again. Happy to risk her here. Perfect Reflection is a star WA filly that now finds herself with Darren Weir. She is unbeaten in five and it was all in his first preparation going from a Pinjarra maiden to beating Delicacy in the G1 Kingston Town. She’s the one to beat. Best knockout is Euro Angel (half to Leebaz) who was impressive on debut.

Silver Slipper Stakes (Rosehill)
The Wolf’s keen to see Golden Slipper hopeful Astern step out again. He impressed on debut and still had plenty to learn. He’s the clear top pick in this off the back of a great trial. Expect him to win well and announce himself as a genuine threat to Capitalist. Defcon sprinted sharply on debut but hit a wall. Did he need the run or does he only posses a short dash? Either way, doub’t he can beat Astern.

Millie Fox Stakes (Rosehill)
Markets suggest this is a two-horse race between the ever-popular grey mare Catkins and First Seal, who needs to finally start delivering on her promise. Both have been costly conveyances for punters recently. What Catkins has in her favour is the map here. She should control the race. First Seal, however, has the talent to blow this field away on her day. All that said, The Wolf is in the corner of I’ve Got The Looks whose explosive turn of speed could prove the difference in a muddling run race.