Wolf’s Racing Guide – Tips 17/2/16

Horse Racing betting

Wolf’s Best
Canterbury Race 7 No.4 Lucky Can Be – $3.40
Lucky Can Be began her career with a bang winning her first two starts in scintillating fashion, displaying a lovely turn of foot on both occasions. Things went a bit awry in her last three starts – she struck a wet track once, she never got clear in one, and she’d possibly had enough in her final run last campaign. Ronny Quinton gave her a good spell and she returns here against her own sex in a race where there looks to be a good amount of speed engaged, draws 2, and gets in extremely well after Andrew Adkins’ 3kg claim. Quinton also gave her a quiet trial behind classy filly Ghisoni where she wasn’t under any duress to hold her place. Think she’s a mare that gets to black type races at some stage and barring getting held up here she should be winning.

Circuit Bets
Canterbury Race 3 No.8 Kinshachi – $4.60
Although beaten at the provincials last time out, really like what we’ve seen so far from Godolphin filly Kinshachi. The daughter of the ill-fated Commands kicked off her career in a low key Canberra maiden which she comfortably won despite striking a heavy track and getting left in front a fair way from home. She was then taken to Newcastle on the Beaumont circuit and was just nosed out late by talented 4yo After All That who looks destined for Saturday metro class. She now comes back to fillies grade here and although she draws the widest gate in the small field, she has the early pace to cross, lead and dictate this and would be shocked if J-Mac wasn’t very positive from the jump as some of the opposition like to either get back or at best take a sit.

Sandown (Hillside) Race 4 No.5 Burning Mountain – $7
Back down in grade again, think Burning Mountain has found the perfect scenario for him to get his third career victory. The blue-blooded gelding was a close up fifth behind Bascule a fortnight ago at this circuit – he had to be used up a touch at the start to get across from his wide draw and, with 1400m probably his max trip, was just found wanting at the end. It was a strong effort though, and it showed that he’s racing very competitively right now. He comes back slightly in trip to the 1300m for this, draws ideally to be able to get a soft run behind the leaders (or lead himself if need be) and will get on to a better surface than that last start. Combined with the lesser calibre of opposition and Burning Mountain looks set to figure prominently.

Sandown (Hillside) Race 5 No.7 Municipality – $4
This is a handy 3yo field for a $40k midweeker with a few of these impressing of late, none more so than Tony McEvoy’s recent Geelong maiden winner Municipality. The close relation to former Australian Guineas hero Dash For Cash was absolutely dominant there, dictating proceedings, before hardly being clicked up to run away and win by more than 4 lengths. It was a deserving break through after Municipality had been a bit stiff not to win his second start when he got trapped wide early, had to work to get outside the lead, got attacked from all angles in the straight and held off all except Crediton which had enjoyed a perfect run throughout behind the speed. From the awkward alley he’ll be going forward again in this and whether he leads or not will be determined by what some of those drawn directly inside him will do. But either way this guy looks like he’s going to be involved in better races than this eventually and as long as he gets across without too many issues, he’ll be hard to beat.

Doomben Race 4 No.1 Redsson – $3.60
After being well supported, and slightly disappointing, two Saturdays ago, Redsson finds himself in a much easier midweek affair here and despite the big weight looks extremely hard to beat. Admittedly thought he was going to win that race last start, certainly on the point of the turn he looked ready to pounce on the leader, but he never really handled the heavy surface and he got tired late. No good if you backed him that day, but it would have done him the world of good as far as his fitness goes. The field he faces today doesn’t have the same depth with most of these either maidens or class 1 gallopers. If he doesn’t win this then there’s no way you could back him in a Saturday race again.

Wolf’s Bolter
Canterbury Race 5 No.8 Beretta – $16
Not sure what happened to Beretta during the middle of last year – he had the one start for a nice win and was immediately spelled. Uncertain as to whether that was an enforced break or not, but you’d have to imagine it was. He’s been brought along a bit more patiently by Kris Lees this time, the gun Novacastrian mentor working the fitness into the son of Bernadini slowly but surely. Last start, his third run back, not including two trials, he worked home well behind two leaders who had walked in front – they ran one, two, but Beretta was only half a length off them at the finish and gave both a couple of kilos in weight. Think that will bring him right to his peak now and, although this is clearly a better race than that was, he looks ready to produce his best. He draws the fence and should be able to tuck in behind a solid speed with Got Unders and Balboa Park likely contest the early lead, and he drops 6kgs in weight, getting to a mark he hasn’t carried in quite a while. Think he can test the fav Miss Denni and there’s no way he should be the second or third roughest in the race.

Quaddie

Canterbury
1,2,4,5,6,7,8/5,8,10/3,4,5/1,4

Sandown (Hillside)
4,7,12/7,8,11,12/2,3,8/6,9,14

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