Wolf’s Racing Guide – Tips 13/3/16

Horse Racing betting

Wolf’s Best
Wellington Race 7 No.7 Spright
Like how this filly is progressing and eventually believe Spright will win better races than the Wellington Boot, with all due respect to the time honoured event. She got too far out of her ground on debut behind Honesty Prevails before running on nicely the last bit, then wasn’t far away from probable Golden Slipper runner Teleperion and last start she looked the winner and just found Omei Sword too strong at the end. That midweek Rosehill race may well turn out to be a very solid form reference – Omei Sword goes around at Rosehill on Saturday in a last ditch attempt to get into the Slipper and is a big hope in that. I’m a little surprised a senior jock isn’t on for this, but it’s only a small field and she’s drawn well, so hopefully the youngster won’t have too many awkward decisions to make.

Circuit Bets
Wellington Race 9 No.4 Are You Sure
This will be Are You Sure’s third start in a Wellington Cup, having been victorious in 2014 and running fifth behind Collar in last year’s edition carrying a hefty 59kgs. Now he hasn’t won a race for almost 2 years but he only has to carry 54.5kgs this year with the likes of Binalong Road in the race and you’d have to say that’s a significant drop and the horse won’t know himself with that sort of weight. He did look to be a big chance in his home town Cup at Mudgee back in December, but if you remember there was a bad fall that brought down multiple runners in that race, including Are You Sure and he never got the chance to finish. He then failed in town so they gave him a break him and he came back a fortnight ago over a sprint trip at Muswellbrook where he ran on stoutly behind Harry Hotspur in what was a pretty decent race. Goes straight back up to around his best distance range and champion jockey Greg Ryan should be able to place him wherever he wants to in the run. Think this sets up perfectly for him.

Corowa Race 8 No.3 Svalbard
Svalbard has been racing in career best form of late and back up to the 1300 here she will be hard to beat. She won at this track over the 1400m two starts back, then was dropped back to the 1150m in better grade and performed admirably behind the in form Matilda Bird. She gets the blinkers off now back out to the longer trip and there looks to be a bit of speed here so expect her to be ridden quietly and come with a burst late. Definitely up to winning this.

Mildura Race 8 No.4 Award Of Merit
There’s some talent there with Award Of Merit but he’s obviously a horse with some issues and he hasn’t performed to his best too often on raceday. He’s had more than a year off and reappears here in a 1400m race without a whole heap of depth and is probably the easiest event he’s been in since his maiden victory on debut. The fact they are at the 1400m first up after such a long break makes me believe that he’s been given plenty of work at home leading into this prep and hopefully they’ve been able to iron out any outstanding concerns. This guy was thought of highly enough to run in a Stan Fox Stakes at his second start, that doesn’t happen unless someone’s got a good pretty good opinion of him and if he brings anywhere near his best here he’ll be winning.

Stony Creek Race 5 No.6 Autumn Time
Autumn Time was solid last start but the step up to the 1100m will be even more suitable and think she gets the right scenario here for her to return to the winner’s circle. Although she’s more than capable of winning over the 1000m, she just seems to get put out of her comfort zone a touch earlier than she’d like and it can lead to her either losing her position in a race or being forced to make a longer run than ideal. Just that extra 100m can make all the difference during transit and she should be able to just sit off them here and be produced a little later in the run.

Quaddie
Wellington
1,3,9/6,7,8/1,2,4,5/1,4,7

Stony Creek
2,3,5,6/3/2,6,8,10/2,3,4,6

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