Victoria Derby – Runner By Runner

Horse betting

The Wolf’s runner by runner guide on the Group One Victoria Derby at Flemington.

Sacred Elixir ($3)
The jury was out after the Caulfield Guineas but he bounced straight back in the Vase and couldn’t have been more impressive. The margin only reads half a length but with clear running he wins eased down. Has been targeted at this race the entire campaign and drawn 1, should be able to box seat. Has a little class edge on his rivals and The Wolf expects that to prove the difference in the end. Bred to run this trip without breaking a sweat.

Prized Icon ($15)
Copped a little bit of interference in the Vase but wasn’t overly impressed by the way he found the line. It was just a middling run. Hard to see him turning around the 5L margin to Sacred Elixir. He was beaten by Yankee Rose prior to that in the Spring Champion which obviously stacks up well after the Cox Plate. Suspect he’s on a downward spiral as far as his spring goes.

Swear ($9)
Split Yankee Rose and Prized Icon in the Spring Champion last start. One one side of the coin Yankee Rose ran third in the Cox Plate and on the other Prized Icon was simply no match for Sacred Elixir. Gives the impression he’ll stay all day (despite his pedigree suggesting otherwise) but suspect he lacks the class of Sacred Elixir. Some hope.

Rocketeer ($17)
Put in a brilliant Derby trial in the Norman Robinson behind Good Standing. With better luck he probably wins. Has run a string of seconds but looks right on track for the 2500m. By Smart Missile and out of a sprinting family there is nothing in his pedigree to suggest he’ll stay however in his case, it’s probably best to just look at the form guide! Place chance.

Morvada ($16)
The small margin to Sacred Elixir in the Vase is flattering but you have to take that form line on face value. He did all the work out in front and was still there at the end. And that was against the pattern at Moonee Valley where swoopers were advantaged. He’ll keep grinding away at the business end.

Inference ($14)
Loved the run of this colt in the Norman Robinson. Was strung up between runners before charging at the line late. Being by So You Think, there should be enough stamina in his pedigree to get the trip no troubles. There is a nice sense of timing about this bloke. The barrier makes things difficult though.

Captain Duffy ($18)
Not sure where his Geelong Classic romp came from but he clearly relished rolling along under his own steam. He did a stack of early work so there is no doubt he’ll see the 2500m right out. Loses strong rider Noel Callow but gets Froggy Newitt so shouldn’t lose much there.

Silvera ($41)
Didn’t have much luck in the Vase but prior to that he was trending nicely towards a Derby. Beat Smart As You Think in Adelaide before chasing home Pretty Punk. Both have run well since. Is closely related to Shoot Out who failed to stay. Still, touch overs at the odds.

Wine Bush ($23)
Was a brave winner over Rocketeer two back before running a middling fifth in the Normal Robinson. It wasn’t the run of a horse screaming future Derby winner. Happy to risk him.

So Si Bon ($9)
The Wolf was very keen to track this colt as he went towards the Derby after his luckless Guineas run. However, this son of So You Think was a touch disappointing in the Vase. Sacred Elixir went straight past him. Hugh Bowman has won three of the past six editions of this race. Could be a big improver at Flemington. Suspect the tight Valley track was part to blame last start.

Kent ($26)
There were excuses again for this gelding last start but it seems there always are. Not the most genuine youngster doing the rounds so have when the petrol tank is flashing empty for most of these in the field, suspect he’ll be one of the first to wave the white flag.

Highlad ($21)
Brought over some solid NZ form but worth noting that both wins were on heavy tracks. Suspect we’ll need another downpour for Murray Baker to take home another Derby trophy this year. Think he is better being let run so expect him to be handy from the wide gate.

Beach Life ($14)
Stuck to his task well in the Norman Robinson. Gives the impression he’ll keep trying at the end of 2500m but lacks the dash to be able to fight out the finish. Top half finish.

Tumultuous ($18)
There is a bit of Preferment about this colt. Chris Waller opted to send him around in the Geelong Classic and tipping he is very glad he did as it’ll top him off perfectly for the 2500m. He is a half to AJC Oaks winner Rena’s Lady as well as out and out stayer Vatuvei. Looks like he’ll eat up the extra trip and bred to love it too.

Hollywood Mo ($34)
Speaking of Preferment, this colt will have to emulate him in winning the Derby as a maiden. Also ran second in the Geelong Classic as a lead up. Not the worst.

All Out Of Love ($71)
Has five lengths to make up on Captain Duffy let alone the rest of the field! No.

The Wolf’s Top 5

1. Sacred Elixir
2. So Si Bon
3. Tumultuous
4. Inference
5. Rocketeer

Odds as of 11am Thursday, October 27.

Bet on the latest Victoria Derby market.